As Clayton Kershaw stands tantalizingly just a few strikeouts shy of 3,000–sitting at 2,997 entering his late-June start–it’s worth reflecting on how rarefied this milestone truly is. He’s poised to become the 20th pitcher in MLB history to reach it, joining an exclusive fraternity that traces its origins to Walter Johnson (3509 career strikeouts) in 1923.
Since Johnson, only giants like Nolan Ryan (5,714), Randy Johnson (4,875), Roger Clemens (4,672), CC Sabathia (3093), up through active players Max Scherzer (3,419) and Justin Verlander (3,471) have joined the 3,000-K club. With Verlander and Scherzer the only active members besides Kershaw, it’s a symbol of dominance and durability that remains nearly mythical in modern baseball.
Why 3,000 Strikeouts Means More Than Just Numbers
Surpassing 3,000 Ks has historically been a milestone that could lead to Hall of Fame induction, marking a legacy defined by both dominance and innings–the “worker” mentality pitchers of past eras embodied.
Consider that Ryan logged six 300-strikeout seasons and pitched 27 years–unthinkable in today’s game. For Kershaw, crossing the 3,000-K threshold would only further cement a career already tracking toward Cooperstown.
The current era sees fewer pitchers reaching even 200 strikeouts per year. In the 2020s, only a handful have eclipsed 280 in a single season–Verlander (290), Scherzer (284), Spencer Strider (281), and Kershaw himself in 2015 with 301. Workhorse seasons of 220+ innings have become rare: even elite starters are now around 200–215 innings annually.
“I’ve talked about it before, I think the game would be better off if we tried to reemphasize starting pitching a little bit more,” Kershaw said. “The problem is that bullpens are so good now, that when you have a chance to have a bullpen guy come out instead of a starter the third time through the lineup, [and] when the guy’s throwing really hard and really good, it’s tough to argue.”
Kershaw on the Cusp
At age 37, Kershaw needs just three more strikeouts. His pursuit has been slowed by injuries–mid-season back issues in 2016 and other physical setbacks, but his consistent excellence over 18 seasons speaks volumes.
Fox Sports aptly describes this stretch as a “reminder that longevity on the mound is fading fast.” And while analysts debate whether he may be the last ever to reach 3,000 in this era, it’s clear Kershaw’s path is a blend of talent, adaptation, and resilience.
After Verlander and Scherzer, the next active pitcher by career strikeouts is Chris Sale (2,528), then Gerrit Cole (2,251), Yu Darvish (2,007). But none are projected to realistically join the club unless they stay exceptionally healthy and effective deep into their late 30s.
This underscores how Kershaw isn’t merely chasing a number. He’s pursuing a career narrative that blends duration, durability, and dominance in a modern context where each ingredient is increasingly scarce.
“You know, you say that [no one is reaching 3,000 again] until it’s not [true], but again, you got to start early, you got to stay healthy, you got to be great,” Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.
Who Else Has a Real Shot at 3,000 Ks?
Many wonder who might be next to join Kershaw. The honest answer? Very few pitchers are even remotely on pace. According to Fox Sports and MLB.com, most active pitchers simply don’t have the combination of early-career innings, high strikeout rates, and durability needed to chase such a huge total.
Cole is probably the most realistic candidate. At 34 years old, he’s already over 2,250 strikeouts and has averaged roughly 240 Ks per full season during his prime. If healthy, he could reach 3,000 in roughly four to five years, though elbow inflammation sidelined him early in 2025, introducing new uncertainty.
Sale, despite over 2,500 strikeouts, has battled injuries for nearly half a decade, making his chances remote. Darvish sits above 2,000 strikeouts, but at 38 years old and dealing with recent injuries, his runway may be too short. Other big arms like Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, or Spencer Strider have superb strikeout rates, but started their careers later or have yet to log the innings volume needed for such a chase.
“At the end of the day, there’s a lot of guys capable of striking out 3,000 people. They just need the opportunity,” Kershaw said.
Tarik Skubal’s Rise Highlights the Challenge of Hitting the 3k Milestone
Skubal, at age 28, offers a helpful foil. In six seasons and 123 games, he has amassed 786 strikeouts, about 6.4 Ks per appearance, translating roughly to 10.2 K/9. Yet compared to Kershaw’s 1,918 Ks at the same age, Skubal is far behind in cumulative totals–a gap that highlights how rare it is even for excellent modern starters to rack up huge career strikeout numbers.
Yet don’t mistake Skubal’s current performance as middling. Far from it. He’s been dominating the mound lately, showcasing electric stuff and ranking among MLB leaders in multiple categories. On June 29, he struck out 13 batters over seven shutout innings while allowing just one hit, tying his career high and joining an elite group of lefties to ever combine 13+ strikeouts with no runs and two or fewer hits in a single game.
He currently leads the American League in WHIP (0.83), is tied for the AL lead in wins (10), and ranks second in all of MLB with 138 strikeouts, trailing only Garrett Crochet. His recent stretch has included dazzling control, with a strikeout rate above 33%, a walk rate under 3%, and a superb 1.97 FIP, building on his 2024 Cy Young form.
Even with that surge, however, the math remains daunting. Assuming a healthy workload of around 180 innings per year and maintaining his 10.2 K/9 pace, Skubal might log around 200 strikeouts per season, but he’d still need 11 more healthy seasons to reach 3,000 Ks, bringing him close to age 39. And that assumes no major injuries or decline–a tall order, particularly for a power pitcher who’s already had significant arm surgery.
Are Strikeouts Up or Down in Today’s Baseball?
Strikeouts have climbed steadily over the past 15 years, with batters striking out more than ever before. In the late 1970s, team strikeout totals were around 867 per 162 games; now it’s close to 1,365 per team–a jump of nearly 57%.
However, while the long-term trend is sharply upward, strikeout rates have softened slightly in just the past few seasons. After peaking in 2021, the league-wide strikeout percentage dropped from about 23.2% to 22.6% in 2024, and stands around 22% in 2025–a modest pullback. Despite this decline, strikeouts per game remain elevated compared to historical norms, indicating the long-term “three true outcomes” era is still very much in play.
Elite pitchers are posting record-high K/9 rates. In 2025, MacKenzie Gore leads MLB with 11.73 K/9, and other top starters aren’t far behind.
Career K/9 leaders still feature modern power arms: Blake Snell (11.16), Sale (11.11), Robbie Ray (10.99)–all over 10 K/9. Still, compared to past eras, strikeouts are far more common. Fans concede that the game has traded some defensive plays for home runs and strikeouts, but offensive output and pace have stayed healthy.
Even as strikeouts remain high across baseball, Kershaw’s pursuit of 3,000 is a reminder that personal milestones demand not just power but years of health and consistency. In an era defined by pitch limits and bullpen depth, he may truly be one of the last to reach the mountaintop.
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