Every NFL team enters the new season with hopes, or at least dreams, of reaching the Super Bowl. And winning it. For the majority of the league’s 32 teams, the Super Bowl is nothing but a pipe dream. At best, it’s something to work toward several seasons down the road. But for a few, winning a Super Bowl is not only a realistic possibility, it is a goal that drives their entire season.
In 2025, however, one team is under more pressure than any other to get to the NFL’s championship game and win it. For the Buffalo Bills, according to multiple NFL experts, the 2025 season is “Super Bowl or Bust.”
ESPN Power Index Gives Bills 2nd-Best Shot at Super Bowl
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, a computerized model that simulates the NFL season based on as much available data as possible, then reruns the simulation 9,999 more times, only seven teams have a “realistic” chance of winning the Super Bowl this season.
The model gives the Bills the best chance of any team, except one â the Kansas City Chiefs. But with three Super Bowl victories and five Super Bowl appearances in the past six seasons, 2025 can’t exactly be called a “Super Bowl or Bust” year for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs actually have four Super Bowl trophies on their mantle. Kansas City won one of the earliest Super Bowls ever played, Super Bowl 4 on January 11, 1970, when they defeated the Minnesota Vikings 23-7.
Why 2025 is Different for Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills, though they have been in existence since 1960 â six years before the Super Bowl was first played â have never won a Super Bowl. Even more frustrating for Buffalo fans, the Bills got to the Super Bowl in four straight years, their only four Super Bowl appearances, from 1991 to 1994. They lost all four times.
So what makes this year different?
“I mean, honestly, what more is there really to say about Buffalo at this point?” said Brett Coleman, host of the Bootleg Football podcast, on Thursday’s program. “Their quarterback is the reigning MVP. They have a great offensive line, a great run game, a diverse group of pass catchers, a defense that tends to play better than the sum of its parts, and, you know, one of the best home field advantages in the entire sport. This team is ready to go. They are ready to win a Super Bowl.”
More Experts Rate 2025 ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ for Bills
Albert Breer, top NFL insider for Sports Illustrated, also rates the Bills as a top Super Bowl contender.
“I’m not afraid to say Super Bowl or bust with them,” Breer said last month. “Last yearâs roster reset was a big success, evidenced by the big-money extensions Khalil Shakir, Greg Rousseau, Christian Benford and, yes, Josh Allen earned. Every year, having a quarterback like Allen puts pressure on everyone to win at the highest level. That certainly exists this year. At some point, you have to find a way to break through.”
Yardbarker‘s Adam Gretz also put the Bills at the top of his “Super Bowl or Bust” list, saying, “Allen’s tenure has seen the second-best stretch of success in franchise history, and if any group is going to get it done, it should be this one. The pressure isn’t just on Buffalo as a team; it’s also on Allen.”
Bills Player Says Super Bowl or Bust ‘Not a Thing’
But not everyone buys in to the “Super Bowl or Bust” outlook. According to one veteran Bills player, four-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Dion Dawkins, Super Bowl or Bust is “not a thing.”
“There’s one winner every year and there’s 31 losers,” Dawkins said in an ESPN interview last week. “Does that mean if we don’t win the Super Bowl that all our contracts expire and we go home? No. There’s never Super Bowl or bust.”
Dawkins did say, however, that he wants the Bills offensive line to earn better ratings in the Madden NFL video game.
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