The Buffalo Bills will still be reeling after losing another tight playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, putting quarterback Josh Allen at 0-4 against 3 x champion, Patrick Mahomes.
But despite still feeling the pain of having what was previously one of the more effect QB sneaks in the NFL get clipped to just a 40% success rate in the AFC Championship game, Grant Cordon of NFL Network has some positive news for the team and fans alike.
Given that Josh Allen won the Most Valuable Player award – somewhat controversially – over previous 2 x MVP, Lamar Jackson, two trends suggest that the Bills should outmatch the Ravens in their blockbuster Week 1 meeting.
“In Week 1 rematches of playoff games from the previous seasons,” Cordon writes, “the postseason winner has won each of the last seven contests, including the Chiefs beating the Ravens last year — and the Detroit Lions defeating the Los Angeles Rams.”
“Furthermore, it will mark the fourth Week 1 matchup all time between an MVP and an MVP runner-up regardless of position. In each of the following showdowns, the MVP’s team came out on top, per NFL Research.”
Multiple Trends Seem To Point To One Projected Outcome In Week 1
However, it must be noted that whilst Baltimore has not managed to have success against Buffalo in the postseason, they have the edge against the Bills in the regular season during the Jackson/Allen era.
“The Ravens are coming off a 12-5 campaign in which they won their second AFC North title in a row. Jackson was stellar to the tune of 45 offensive TDs, with 41 through the air, 4,172 passing yards and 915 rushing yards.”
“Among Baltimore’s regular-season wins was a 35-10 Week 4 victory over Buffalo in which Jackson had three total TDs. He’s 2-1 in the regular season against Allen, but 0-2 in the playoffs.”
“Allen and the Bills won their fifth consecutive AFC East crown last season. The reigning MVP threw for 3,731 yards and 28 TDs, while rushing for 12 scores and 531 yards. Both Jackson and Allen were tabbed as Pro Bowlers, but it was Jackson who was voted first-team All-Pro, and Allen who eventually took center stage at NFL Honors as the MVP.”
The Bills edged out the Ravens, 27-25 in the playoffs – despite the 35-10 humiliation by Baltimore the previous September.
Unlike Lamar Jackson, who does markedly better in the regular season, or Patrick Mahomes, who always saves his best for the postseason, Allen has had reasonable success in both – getting to two AFC Championship games in the past five years.
In fact, Allen’s sole truly embarrasing loss in the playoffs was to Joe Burrow‘s Bengals back in January 2023, when Cincinnati beat the Buffalo 27-10.
Trends are hardly the sole – or even a majority indicator of success, especially partially obscure ones like these. But they do demonstrate a trend that can be linked to a causation – MVPs outperforming their runner-ups early on in the following season – that can be bought into the predictive equation.
Regardless of who wins, it will no doubt be the biggest and most anticipated game of Week 1.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Bills Trend Gives Them An Optimistic Prediction Ahead Of Week 1 appeared first on Heavy Sports.