The Open Championship (or the British Open if you prefer) presents a unique test of men’s major golf, and because of that, we’ve seen a widespread sampling of winners in recent years.
Up until J.J. Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, we had seen an insane run of future Hall of Famers pulling down the major championships on the men’s sides. The usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau and finally, Rory McIlroy — were the ones winning the trophies, and if they weren’t winning they almost certainly contended.
The Open Championship, though, has been the outlier, to an extent. Certainly, Schauffele was the best major player in 2024, winning the PGA Championship before hoisting the Claret Jug at Royal Troon to end the summer. Of course, he took the trophy from Brian Harman, a surprise winner the year before.
Longshots Historically Have Reason For Optimism At British Open
That darkhorses or sleepers win the British Open isn’t shocking. Links golf is a different style of the sport compared to what we see weekly on the PGA Tour. Punishing length isn’t as important, and there’s a certain level of creativity and vision needed to conquer links courses. And that’s before you even consider the unpredictable weather that always seems to show up.
When you look back over the past decade or so, there are some longshot winners.
2024: Xander Schauffele (12-1)
2023: Brian Harman (150-1)
2022: Cam Smith (25-1)
2021: Collin Morikawa (30-1)
2019: Shane Lowry (80-1)
2018: Francisco Molinari (25-1 … was 60-1 a month before the tournament)
2017: Jordan Spieth (12-1, edging out 60-1 Matt Kuchar)
2016: Henrik Stenson (30-1)
2015: Zach Johnson (80-1)
It’s also not unheard of to see older players atop the board, and it makes sense. The Open is similar to the Masters in that you typically get better the more you learn the course (or in this case, the style of play). Darren Clarke winning the 2011 Open at age 42 as a 150-1 longshot stands out, as does Tom Watson going to a playoff in 2009 at 59 years old.
Longshots of 50-1 or Higher Who Could Contend For British Open Title
With all of that out of the way, here are a few longshots (50-1 or greater) bettors might take a look at this week at Royal Portrush.
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sepp Straka (50-1): Straka is a betting community darling, and he’s going to be highly tipped this week. That he’s down to 50-1 in a lot of places speaks to how much action he’s getting. But it’s not without reason. He’s very solid off the tee and has an extremely high ball-striking ceiling. Even last week, with subpar showings in both areas, he finished seventh place at The Genesis Scottish Open. He has been really good this year, and he has some strong success at The Open, finishing tied for second in 2023.
Jordan Spieth (60-1): It’s more of a value play than anything else. Spieth has won the Claret Jug before and has five career top-10 finishes in this event. Granted, that win came in 2017, and he’s obviously not the same player, but before the recent injury, he had been playing really well. He’s sneaky long off the tee with improved accuracy and the irons are coming back. He’s given himself a clean bill of health, and maybe he’s freed up after he and his wife just welcomed a new baby.
Maverick McNealy (90-1): Hard to argue with the body of work this season. McNealy is having the best year of his career. After winning the RSM Classic in November, he has six top-10 finishes in 19 starts. He made the cut at all three majors and has performed well at signature events like the Memorial (T-5th), RBC Heritage (T-3rd) and the Genesis (second). His style should fit, and he’s in good form, gaining strokes on the field in his last four starts (including the U.S. Open).
Daniel Berger (120-1): He’s a ball-striker’s ball-striker. He’s solid off the tee, gaining on the field in 15 of 17 starts in 2025. But he sucks at putting. You know who also has a reputation for sucking at putting? Shane Lowry, and he won it here in 2019. Putting is different on these links courses, and who knows how the weather will affect the greens. That could even the playing field for someone like Berger.
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