Almost 20 years since he last coached an NFL game, there is one quote from Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells that seems to live on beyond all others.
“You are what your record says you are,” said Parcells, who won 2 Super Bowls with the New York Giants and is the only head coach in NFL history to lead 4 different teams to the playoffs.
Truer words may have never been spoken. They also sum up how the upcoming season will be defined for the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos went 10-7 in 2024 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2015 and Vegas oddsmakers predict the Broncos will make a slight regression in 2025. ESPN Bet projects Denver’s over/under win total at 9.5 wins.
The truth is, if the Broncos go 9-8 in 2025, it’s going to be a red flag. Going 10-7 might also be considered a regression.
Improving by one win and going 11-6 would be cause for celebration, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see a clear path where the Broncos go 12-5 … and might still finish in second or third place in the AFC West.
Here’s how they could do it.
Plotting Denver’s Path to Winning 12 Games
It would be Denver’s first 12-win season since 2015, when they won Super Bowl 50 behind a dominant defense and in quarterback Peyton Manning’s final NFL season.
In Manning’s 4 seasons in Denver, the Broncos never won less than 12 games. They went 13-3 his first 2 seasons and 12-4 his last 2 seasons and played in the Super Bowl twice.
In 2025, the Broncos have 8 games, on paper, that seem like certain wins.
That includes home games against the Tennessee Titans (Week 1), New York Jets (Week 6), New York Giants (Week 7), Dallas Cowboys (Week 8), Las Vegas Raiders (Week 10), and Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 16).
Road games that look like locks are a little harder to come by with the Indianapolis Colts (Week 2) and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 14) jumping off the page.
If they Broncos can split games against AFC West foes the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, that gets them to 10 wins. They split with the Chiefs in 2024 and were swept by the Chargers in a pair of one-score games.
Winnable home games against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 on Monday Night Football and Green Bay Packers in Week 14 would get Denver to a 12-5 finish.
Biggest Improvements to Denver’s Roster
Denver’s defense returns 3 NFL All-Pro selections in defensive end Zach Allen, edge rusher Nik Bonitto and NFL Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II.
Denver signed a former NFL All-Pro in free agent safety Talanoa Hufanga and signed another player with All-Pro potential in free agent linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
Denver went with defense in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft, where they took Texas defensive back and Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron, a plug and play starter, at No. 20 overall.
On offense, starting quarterback Bo Nix returns for his second season and the Broncos went out of their way to improve the 2 weakest position groups on that side of the ball. At tight end, they signed 2-time Pro Bowler Evan Engram, drafted UCF running back RJ Harvey in the second round and signed free agent running back J.K. Dobbins.
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