Carson Beck’s NFL Projection Comes With One Big Warning for Miami QB

Carson Beck and the Miami Hurricanes have the luxury of resting during Week 7 after beating rival Florida State last week. It’s Miami’s second bye in three weeks, with their next game not until October 17 against Louisville — another chance for Beck to keep padding his Heisman résumé and draft stock.

Through five games, the former Georgia Bulldog has revived a career that once seemed lost during the 2024 season. He’s come back not just from inconsistency and struggles, but from a devastating arm injury that could have ended his playing days.

Still, there’s work to do if Beck wants to return to the form that once made him a projected first-round pick coming out of the 2023 season, his first year as a starter.

According to ESPN’s Jordan Reid, Beck is still being listed as an early- to mid-Day 2 quarterback.

“Beck is coming off another standout performance against a ranked opponent. In last week’s win over Florida State, he recorded his fifth career game with four or more touchdown passes. Beck has reentered the early-round discussion and continues to trend upward,” Reid wrote.

With seven regular-season games left, Beck has time to prove skeptics, like Reid, wrong about his NFL potential. But doubts remain.


Carson Beck’s Greatest Flaw as QB

Going back to his days at Georgia, it was clear what Beck’s biggest weakness was: when pressured, things went sideways. The numbers back that up.

When Beck has time, his completion percentage is 75.7 percent. When he’s forced out of the pocket, it drops to 57.1 percent, per Reid. That’s why there was such a stark difference between his 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Georgia’s offensive line struggled to protect Beck in 2024, and he was sacked 18 times. That led to his interceptions doubling from six to 12. The sixth-year senior now stands behind one of the country’s top offensive lines at Miami, which has the third-lowest pressure rate in the FBS (17.7 percent). He’s been sacked just four times this season. That protection, along with his 1,213 yards and 12 total scores, has put him atop the Heisman race.


Carson Beck’s NFL Future Will Have to Be Perfect Fit

The best news for Beck is that he appears to be in the perfect spot at Miami to rebuild his draft stock. It’s a situation similar to Cam Ward, who entered last season projected as a fifth-rounder and ended up the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

Beck’s former offensive coordinator at Georgia, Todd Monken, believes the same leap is possible.

“If you get the Carson that I know with the right mindset, and he is 100 percent physically, you’re going to get a first-round quarterback. But that’s what you’ve got to find out,” Monken told Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, per ESPN.

If that proves true, Beck had better hope he doesn’t share the same fate as Ward, who has already been sacked 19 times this NFL season.

“Beck will need to be drafted to a team where he’s the final piece of the puzzle rather than one that lacks surrounding playmakers; he’s more reliant on good infrastructure than most QBs,” Reid wrote.

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