For the first time in nine years, the Kansas City Chiefs are no longer sitting atop the AFC West. Their 20-10 loss to the Houston Texans on “Sunday Night Football” mathematically eliminated them from winning the division and pushed them to 6-7 on the season. While Kansas City is not officially out of postseason contention, the path forward is narrow. With a series of harsh Week 15 power-ranking drops and several tiebreakers working against them, the Chiefs need perfection down the stretch—plus plenty of outside help.
Chiefs Slide in Week 15 Power Rankings as Playoff Odds Shrink
SportsLine analytics give Kansas City only a 9.1% chance of reaching the postseason. Patrick Mahomes acknowledged the uphill climb, telling reporters, “We know the (playoff) chances are getting lower and lower, but I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have, every opportunity we get.”
Across the league’s power rankings, analysts echoed the reality of Kansas City’s precarious position.
NFL.com ranked the Chiefs No. 20, writing that Sunday “felt like a funeral at Arrowhead,” with the nine-year streak of division titles officially ending. The outlet highlighted brutal fourth-quarter drops by Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, calling the finish “a cruel, painful knife twist… a surefire sign that this offense is broken.”
ESPN ranked Kansas City No. 16. Reporter Nate Taylor highlighted a shocking statistic: the Chiefs are tied for second-most drops in the league with 24. Kelce alone has eight drops this year, leading the NFL. Even more concerning, Taylor noted, “Kelce has three drops that resulted in interceptions, tied for the most by any player in a single season in the past 10 years.”
Pro Football Talk ranked Kansas City No. 19 and bluntly asked, “How bad would they be if they didn’t have Patrick Mahomes?”
Bleacher Report placed the Chiefs at No. 17, calling their dynasty “in serious jeopardy.” Analyst Gary Davenport wrote, “It’s not happening this year,” adding that Mahomes has not been able to summon the late-game magic that defined their run. Sunday’s 10-point output was the lowest scoring game of Mahomes’ career as a starter.
With key tiebreakers already lost to the Texans, Jaguars, and Bills, the Chiefs face one of the most complicated playoff scenarios in the league.
How Kansas City Can Still Make the AFC Playoffs
The only realistic pathway is to finish 10-7 and force a series of tiebreakers. Kansas City’s remaining schedule includes the Chargers, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders. The Chiefs are 5-2 at home, which helps, and they have won nine straight home games against Denver and three straight against the Chargers.
The Chargers—currently 9-4—must finish 10-7 or worse. Their remaining schedule includes road games at Kansas City, Dallas, and Denver, plus a home game against Houston. The Chiefs need the Chargers to lose specifically to Kansas City and Denver to create a division-record tie, which would enable a common-games tiebreaker to favor the Chiefs.
Even then, Kansas City would need the Texans or Colts to stumble. Both sit at 8-5, with Houston holding the No. 7 seed and the second-easiest remaining schedule in the AFC.
Kansas City’s climb is steep, but Mahomes remains confident in the locker room’s resolve. As he said following the loss, “I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have.”
The Chiefs’ postseason life now depends on winning out—and hoping everything else falls into place.
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