The 2026 NFL Draft is still nearly 10 months away, but that hasn’t stopped early projections from gaining momentum. ESPN recently dropped its first full first-round mock draft, offering a glimpse into what teams like the Indianapolis Colts could be targeting next April.
It’s built off a mix of early scouting evaluations and simulations powered by ESPN’s Football Power Index, which runs the 2025 season thousands of times to predict outcomes and assign draft order.
According to ESPN’s Matt Miller, the Cleveland Browns are projected to hold the No. 1 overall pick thanks to one of their two first-rounders. The Los Angeles Rams also have multiple first-round picks, positioning both teams to reshape their rosters depending on how the season unfolds.
As with any mock this far out, projections are fluid, but they reveal who is generating early interest among NFL evaluators.
Colts Shockingly Go QB At No. 11
One of the bigger surprises from ESPN’s mock is the quarterback they have slotted to the Colts. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has emerged as one of the more intriguing passers in next year’s class and is projected to land in Indianapolis. The move speaks volumes about the current quarterback situation in Indy.
Despite investing heavily in Anthony Richardson just two years ago, the Colts appear to still be weighing their options. Richardson has shown flashes but hasn’t taken the leap many hoped for.
Indianapolis also brought in Daniel Jones during the offseason, adding another layer of insurance to a room filled with potential but lacking certainty. With that in mind, Nussmeier could quickly rise as a real candidate to take over if the current plan stalls.
Nussmeier is the son of New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier and just wrapped up his first full season as the starter at LSU. His production turned heads around the league. He threw for over 4,000 yards with 29 touchdowns, showing off a live arm, pocket toughness and a willingness to push the ball downfield.
He plays with confidence and a bit of edge, which scouts have praised during early evaluations. While the 12 interceptions stand out, teams see a quarterback who isn’t afraid to attack defenses and operate under pressure. If he cleans up the turnover concerns, his stock could climb even higher by next April.
No Arch Manning — Yet
Interestingly, one high-profile name is missing from the early mix. Arch Manning is not listed in ESPN’s mock. Despite the attention surrounding the Texas quarterback and nephew of Peyton and Eli, scouts expect him to return to school and continue developing under Steve Sarkisian. That opens the door for quarterbacks like Nussmeier to rise.
The Colts have already started laying the groundwork for the future at quarterback. In the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, they selected Riley Leonard, who helped Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
Leonard transferred from Duke and delivered his best season yet, throwing for nearly 2,900 yards and rushing for over 900 with 38 total touchdowns. He earned a reputation for being tough, mobile, and competitive. He’s now working with fellow rookies like tight end Tyler Warren and running back DJ Giddens as the Colts continue to reshape their young offensive core.
The Colts are clearly betting on upside across the board. They’ve added value at key positions without sacrificing cap space and are giving themselves options at quarterback moving forward. Whether Richardson can deliver on his promise or not, Indianapolis is preparing to pivot quickly.
If Nussmeier takes another step forward this fall for the Tigers, that plan could be coming into focus sooner than expected.
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