His starting job already appears under threat from a late-round 2025 NFL draft pick, but a major flaw could also undermine Washington Commanders starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. in a contract year.
Robinson’s a pending free agent in 2026, and ESPN’s John Keim believes he must get better in one key area. Specifically, gaining more yards before he’s hit.
As Keim revealed, “in the last nine games last season, including the postseason, Robinson had six games when he averaged 1.48 yards or less before first contact. The league average was 2.67 yards.”
While Keim pointed out Robinson will “have a stronger offensive line to open holes,” poor blocking only partly explains these disappointing numbers. The statistics also reveal the former Alabama back’s lack of explosiveness and elusiveness as a runner.
Robinson thinks he knows the solution, but his mediocre breakaway threat will continue to make him vulnerable to more versatile and speedier members of the depth chart.
Brian Robinson Jr. Undermined By Core Weaknesses
A career average of 4.1 yards per carry is solid, but Robinson lacks elite quickness, natural shiftiness and keen field vision. He’s not a swift, one-cut-and-go runner, nor is the 6-foot-1, 228-pounder an overwhelming bruiser able to batter defenses into submission between the tackles.
Those deficiencies in his game help explain Robinson tallying a mere 1.9 yards after contact, per Pro Football Reference. Breaking just 34 tackles from 570 rushing attempts also hints at Robinson’s problem.
The 26-year-old is tough and dependable, but he’s never going to scare defenses. That won’t change even if the player who’s missed 10 game in three years can finally complete a full season.
Robinson told JP Finlay of NBC4 Sports, “the biggest thing for me is being available. I’m hell when I’m well.”
It’s a confident boast, but Robinson has been named a possible trade candidate this offseason for good reason. He’ll continue to find his playing time threatened once training camp gets underway on July 18, when more than one exciting youngster will be vying for carries.
Commanders Have Added More Big-Play Potential to Backfield
No player can do more to put Robinson’s job in jeopardy than potential draft steal Jacory Croskey-Merritt. This year’s seventh-rounder turned heads at minicamp thanks to the kind of sudden burst Washington’s ground game has lacked with Robinson leading the way.
This clip from Monumental Sports Network’s Mitchell Tischler showcased Croskey-Merritt’s upside as a dynamic cutback runner.
Robinson simply can’t match this variety and acceleration. The veteran still has his fans, with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury even singling Robinson out earlier this offseason, but the Commanders can’t ignore any chance to add more big plays on the ground.
Kingsbury hasn’t been afraid to make big changes to put a more expansive system around the dual-threat talents of franchise quarterback-in-the making Jayden Daniels. That means there won’t be much hesitation in supplanting Robinson if a more naturally gifted game-breaker can emerge in the rotation.
Croskey-Merritt looks like the best candidate, but under-the-radar Demetric Felton is also in the mix. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler’s flexibility as a pass-catcher means the 30-year-old retains value, despite calls for the Commanders to dump the skilled veteran.
That would be a major risk with Robinson entering a contract year far from secure as the starter.
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