The Chicago Cubs ascended to the top of the National League Central with a slug-happy offense over the first half of the season.
Yet, as the dog days have hit teams around the MLB, the Cubs offense has also hit the skids.
Despite scoring 11 runs in St. Louis over the weekend, Chicago’s offensive malaise continued, since it crossed home plate just twice in a pair of losses that dropped the Cubs a season-high six games back of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead.
What Happened To The Cubs Offense?
Chicago’s offense burned baseball on fire in the first half, since it averaged more than five runs per game over its first 96 games.
But the Cubs are just 8-11 in their past 19 games and are scoring just 4.05 runs in that span. They are tied for 22nd in the majors in slugging percentage (.381) and tied for 21st in on-base percentage (.308) since July 20.
âItâs baseball,â Cubs president Jed Hoyer said last week, according to The Athletic. âWhat we were doing for the first two months, while unbelievably fun, I think at some level you kind of knew that wasnât sustainable. You look at the underlying numbers and were were going to have some regression.â
Those struggles have intensified since the calendar flipped to August too. In nine games, where Chicago is 4-5, it is 28th in runs scored (29) and 25th in slugging percentage (.364) and has a minus-7.2 fWAR.
Perhaps no Cubs player better personifies the club’s second-half struggles than first baseman Michael Busch. In the unofficial first half of the season (90 games), Busch had a .925 OPS and 19 home runs, yet in the 21 games since, he is slashing just .153/.228/.292 with 26 strikeouts in 79 plate appearances.
Yet, Busch is hardly alone. Nearly every other Cubs run producer, Pete Crow-Armstrong (.847/.703), Seiya Suzuki (.867/.626), Kyle Tucker (.882/.689) and Dansby Swanson (.730/.637) has a worse second-half OPS than the first half.
Are The Cubs Going To Be OK?
There is bona fide angst, and things might get worse when the Cubs go north of the border to meet the white-hot Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday. Plus, the rival Brewers are 38-12 in their past 50 games, which means winning the Central is getting less and less likely.
Still, the Cubs are still sitting pretty in the National League playoff race. They are 17 games over .500, and Baseball Reference gives them a 99.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2020, since they are six games up on the Cincinnati Reds.
Plus, Hoyer feels the offensive skid is only temporary. In fact, he thinks the slump could be well-timed, since it means their best offensive players will turn things around in time for the pennant chase.
“I actually think now weâre due for the opposite,” Hoyer said. “You look at our numbers the last nine weeks or so, weâre due for some of these guys to get out of their slumps. I try to be pretty balanced about it.
“You have to look at it on both sides. We were never going to continue hitting like we did in the first two months, and weâre a better offensive team than weâve shown recently. Thatâs the nature of a long season.”
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