When journalist John Harwood asked ESPN’s Jeff Passan a simple question–why batting average has become a less-meaningful measure of a hitter–he probably didn’t expect a masterclass on modern baseball analytics in return. But that’s exactly what Passan delivered in his thoughtful reply on X, one that has since gone viral for all the right reasons.
The question came after an exchange between Passan and former big leaguer Doug Mientkiewicz about the evolution of hitting stats. Passan’s nuanced explanation not only demystifies why batting average has taken a backseat to other offensive metrics but also reminds us there’s more than one way to be great at the plate.
From Revered to Recalibrated
“For most of baseball history,” Passan wrote, “the walk was sneered at — a lesser form of getting on base compared to the exceptional skill it takes to swing. The analytical revolution in the game changed that.”
That revolution, fueled by the Moneyball era and front-office data science, transformed how players are evaluated.
“If the objective of the game is to outscore a team, then the likeliest way to score runs is for people to get on base,” Passan explained. “Post-Moneyball, on-base percentage replaced batting average as [a] more reliable metric for helping produce runs.”
Batting Average Still Matters, But Has Limits
Passan cautions against completely writing off batting average: “Characterizing a .248 average as poor is wrong. The league-wide average is actually .246. Which I personally think is problematic. I’d love to see more balls in play because balls in play = action and forcing the defense to make a play demands skill.”
Still, he acknowledges it doesn’t tell the whole story. He brings in other metrics, like BABIP – batting average on balls in play – to add context.
“Because of better defensive positioning, that number is closer to .290 these days,” Passan said. “Some years, guys have excellent ball-in-play fortune. And some years, they don’t. BABIP luck is often the difference between a good average and a lesser one, whereas walk rate tends to be much steadier year-over-year.”
Clutch Matters, Strikeouts Hurt, and Balance Is Rare
He also touched on situational stats: “Another sub-category is batting average with runners in scoring position. This isn’t particularly steady year-over-year, but it damn sure is important when it comes to run production. And some players just have a knack for hitting better with RISP than others, which illustrates another reason batting average itself is but a partial story.”
Then he took aim at the strikeout trend.
“There’s strikeout rate, too. The strikeout has become an accepted part of hitting. I hate that,” he said. “If you put the ball in play and it has a 29–30% chance of falling for a hit, then shouldn’t an outcome with a 0% chance of falling for a hit thusly be penalized?”
He understands the logic: “Smarter people than me have determined that if higher strikeouts are the cost of higher slug, the tradeoff is worthwhile. I get the premise. I just find it to be an uglier form of a beautiful game.”
Three Hitters, One Conclusion
To illustrate the complexity of offensive value, Passan offered this stat line comparison:
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Manny Machado: .302 / .361 / .507
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Juan Soto: .248 / .383 / .486
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Eugenio Suárez: .248 / .319 / .572
“Three totally different hitters,” Passan wrote. “Machado is balanced and batting average-heavy. Soto’s average is deflated but he’s an on-base savant thanks to the highest walk rate in the major leagues. Suárez is a masher whose high slug is his calling card.”
“So who’s the best?” he continued. “Well, if you’re judging by a metric called weighted on-base average, which seeks to be a catch-all offensive number that is park-neutral … they are pretty much identical.”
Passan closed with a measured defense of batting average’s role in the modern game.
“It does matter. It’s just not the first determinant of a baseball player’s quality,” he wrote. “Sometimes I do fear the pendulum has swung too far in the anti-batting-average direction.”
Ultimately, there are many paths to being a productive hitter. The takeaway isn’t to dismiss average, but to understand it as just one slice of the larger offensive puzzle.
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