The reality no one in the NFL really wants to talk about every year is that, like it or not, when every season starts there are just a handful of teams that actually have a chance at winning the Super Bowl.
We don’t want to talk about it, because it’s kind of a bummer and kind of flies in the face of everything we love about sports, which is the notion everyone starts on even footing at the start of the season. That everyone has a chance.
That’s something to remember as the Philadelphia Eagles start their Super Bowl title defense in 2025 as the betting favorite according oddsmakers to win it all again at +600 but are behind a trio of AFC teams in The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, which gives them a 7.8 percent chance of winning it all.
The Baltimore Ravens (11.7 percent) have the best odds, followed by the Buffalo Bills (10.1 percent) and Kansas City Chiefs (9.9 percent). The Eagles are followed by the Detroit Lions (6.5 percent) and Cincinnati Bengals (6.0 percent).
“The numbers aren’t as hot for the defending Super Bowl champions,” The Athletic’s Austin Mock wrote. “The Philadelphia Eagles have ‘only’ a 7.8 percent chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy per the model, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL … The Eagles are still set up for success with their key components returning, and there are major questions with their greatest conference competition in 2024 — the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings — but it’s not easy to repeat. The Kansas City Chiefs can attest to that.”
Eagles Took Down Chiefs’ Pursuit of NFL History
When the Chiefs won consecutive Super Bowls following the 2022 and 2023 seasons, they became the eighth team in NFL history to win back to back championships and the first team to make it back to the Super Bowl for a shot at winning a third straight title.
Then, the Eagles happened. After a 40-22 win over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on February 9 in New Orleans, Philadelphia also seemed like a team with the capability to run it back.
“The Chiefs are projected to win 10.8 games,” Mock wrote. “Ten wins would be their lowest total since going 10-6 in 2017, the last season Patrick Mahomes wasn’t the full-time starting quarterback.”
History of Long Shots Winning Super Bowl
There isn’t much of a history of teams starting the NFL regular season as long shots and going on to win the Super Bowl.
According to Sports Odds History, the Eagles were the biggest long shots in the last 20 years to go win the Super Bowl after starting the 2017 season at +4000 odds and capping the season with an upset win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
The Eagles were at +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl before the 2024 season.
In the history of preseason Super Bowl odds, which dates back to 1977, the biggest preseason long shot to ever win the Super Bowl were the St. Louis Rams in 1999, who started the season at +15000 odds to win it all.
The Eagles open the 2025 season at home on Thursday, September 4, against the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East showdown.
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