The San Diego Padres have a stacked roster with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill at the core, all locked up for the next decade. The state of the Padres is arguably the best it’s been in franchise history. Still, the Padres have important players expected to hit free agency next offseason. In a recent ESPN article, Jeff Passan broke down the biggest upcoming contracts in the MLB, including three Padres’ stars: Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Luis Arraez.
Dylan Cease
“Cease has long been considered the gem of a strong crop of starters scheduled to hit free agency after this season, and it’s easy to see why.” Passan continued, “His slider is a weapon. His fastball sits at 97 mph. The stuff is nasty. But he never has been able to avoid walks, and that will scare away some suitors. Cease is much better than the 5.61 ERA he currently sports (a 3.34 FIP portends better results) and he should get a five-plus-year deal, but $200 million-plus is probably out of reach because of the free passes.”
As Passan stated, the fastball-slider combo is lethal and Cease clearly has ace-caliber stuff. However, his career 10% walk rate is concerning and gets him into trouble. He had an off year with the White Sox in 2023, where he had a 4.58 ERA. After being traded to the Padres last offseason, Cease had a phenomenal season where he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young race. Ultimately, it’s going to come down to how successful Cease is this year. If he repeats a season similar to 2024, Passan could be wrong and he could land a deal over $200 million.
Michael King
“Two years ago, King was a reliever for the New York Yankees. Now he’s the best pitcher in the class. King’s sinker and slider have elite movement, and his command of his four-pitch arsenal is exceptional.” Passan went on to say, “He strikes out oodles of hitters, maintains his velocity and could wind up with a bigger deal in free agency than his teammate with flashier stuff.”
Michael King burst onto the scene as a frontline starter after being the main return for the Padres in the Juan Soto trade. As mentioned by Passan, King’s 81th percentile strikeout rate propelled him to a sub-3 ERA last season. Similar to Cease, the potential payday King will receive is largely dependent on this season. So far, King has been better than last season with a 2.22 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP to pair with expected numbers that are among the best in the league. If King continues at this level of play, he could be paid as one of the best starters in the game.
Luis Arraez
Passan included Luis Arraez as a “contender” to receive a $100+ million contract. Arraez’s market is interesting as he has been traded twice despite being a three-time batting champion. He is an elite contact hitter, but that is his only tool. He doesn’t hit for power and grades out as a poor fielder and base-runner.
Spotrac currently predicts his market value to be a 9 year, $154 million contract. Unfortunately for Arraez, that number could be a vast over-estimate. Not only is that notion supported by Passan’s article, but he’s been moved twice already and has only accumulated 8.7 fWAR over his past four seasons. Many teams aren’t going to value his skillset enough to warrant a massive payday.
Way Too Early Prediction
Both starters are going to break the bank. From the Padres’ point of view, the goal should be to bring back at least one. The Padres’ ability to re-sign both Cease and King seems nearly impossible. In terms of Arraez, his market is too unknown to make an accurate prediction. He very well could end up losing out on a big time offer resulting in his return to San Diego.
If I’m Padres GM AJ Preller, I’m doing whatever I can to bring back Michael King long-term and trying to get Arraez back in a Padres uniform if the price is right.
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