Just two All-Star breaks ago, the Baltimore Orioles looked like the best emerging team in the MLB. The franchise’s top two draft picks from 2019, Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, had recently begun their careers and were flashing superstar potential, while the organization boasted one of the best-rated farm systems in the MLB, headlined by another number one pick in Jackson Holliday.
Fast forward to today, and the Orioles have two wildcard round exits to show for and sit in last place in the AL East. Not exactly the youth takeover this fan base hoped for. In addition to the team struggling, Adley Rutschman has significantly slowed down from his star-caliber play over his first two years in his career. For a few reasons, there’s now speculation that the former number one pick could be traded away. So, should the Orioles blow it up?
Why It Makes Sense to Trade Rutschman
Rumors around trading their franchise backstop started on draft day when the Orioles selected two catchers with their first two picks. They took Ike Irish 19th overall and then Caden Bodine at pick 30. Pair that with zero reports regarding the Orioles and Rutschman engaging in contract extension talks, and it’s fair to assume they may be open to moving him.
At the plate, Rutschman has not been nearly as effective since last year’s All-Star break, putting up just a .207 average and .585 OPS in last year’s second half. This year, he’s followed up with an OPS under .700 and ranks just 35th in offensive run value. Much different from how Adley started his career when he put up over an .800 OPS in both 2023 and 2024 with elite defensive numbers behind the plate.
Why the Orioles Should Keep Rutschman
Despite the recent struggles and drafted replacements, the Orioles should not trade him away. Adley is a great ball player and is primed for positive regression. Taking a deep dive into his numbers reveals that he has maintained elite discipline and has an expected OPS over .800. His chase and whiff rate are both above the 90th percentile, with his walk and strikeouts rates being 78th and 82nd, respectively. While Rutschman’s exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel percentages are all below average, it’s worth noting that they are roughly the same as in his good years.
The reality is Rutschman has been slumping; he’s still a valuable player. He finally began to pick it back up with a .890 OPS this June. Unfortuntaley, the hot streak abruptly ended when he was placed on the 10-day IL with an oblique injury.
It’s been bad luck for Adley, and really the whole Orioles organization, but trading him away would just push back the Orioles’ timeline. This season may be a lost cause, but it doesn’t mean Baltimore has to panic. They have their young core in place. Improving the pitching in the offseason should be the priority of this organization, not breaking up the young core.
Ultimately, trading Adley at the lowest point of his career would be extremely foolish.
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