The USC football program was once considered one of the elites in college football. But years of unmet expectations have brought little more than disappointment and lingering questions, with head coach Lincoln Riley now at the center of it all.
After a 4-0 start to the season, the then-No. 21 Trojans were viewed as one of the country’s most underrated teams and a dark horse to compete for the Big Ten championship. A Week 5 loss on the road to No. 23 Illinois, however, has reignited the doubt USC fans have lived with for nearly two decades.
That’s why former USC quarterback and ESPN analyst Max Browne believes the next month will be pivotal for the Trojans and their future.
“The next 3 games will decide the next 3 years for USC football,” Browne wrote. “USC is college football’s most consequential program…in the sport’s most consequential era…in its most consequential season…with its most consequential stretch of games.”
Following a bye week in Week 6, the Trojans will host No. 20 Michigan, then face back-to-back road games against rival No. 21 Notre Dame and Nebraska.
“3 games in 28 days. 3 games that will determine if USC is a title contender or a fading brand,” Browne added.
Lincoln Riley Has Struggled to Rebuild USC Football
Like so many before him, Riley has struggled to restore USC’s traditional brand of dominance. For a program with 11 national titles, 37 conference titles and eight Heisman Trophy winners, excellence is expected.
Now in his fourth season at Southern Cal, Riley is 30-15 overall and 2-1 in bowl games. His debut season after leaving Oklahoma remains his best, as he guided USC to an 11-3 record. But a second loss to Utah in the Pac-12 title game kept the Trojans out of the four-team College Football Playoff. Since then, USC has gone 8-5 and 7-6.
David Woods of Bruin Report pointed out a statistic that won’t sit well with USC fans: through 45 games, Riley’s record is worse by one game than his predecessor Clay Helton, who was 31-14 at the same point.
Helton made it five full seasons before being fired two games into his sixth. He finished with a 46-24 record, 2-3 in bowls, and just three winning seasons with one top-5 finish.
Lincoln Riley’s Record Against Ranked Opponents at USC is Concerning
What has become especially troubling is Riley’s record in big games. With the loss to Illinois, USC is now 3-11 against ranked opponents under his leadership.
The Trojans have a chance to change that in the coming weeks against Michigan and Notre Dame, but the road will not be easy.
“The result of those two games will define how USC finishes in its fourth season under Riley,” wrote SI’s Caden Handwork. “An 0-2 record in those games could put Riley on the hot seat and take the Trojans out of the running for a spot in the 12-team playoff.”
Even a 1-1 split in those games would likely be an acceptable result.
USC also faces No. 2 Oregon on November 22. By then, the season could already be unraveling — or the Trojans could be riding a late hot streak.
Whatever the case may be, Riley and the Trojans will be under a microscope in the next month of play. But who is to say Riley makes it that long?
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