SIXTEEN of the 24 Euro 2024 teams will make it through to the knockout stages.
Simply enough, the winners and runners-up of the six groups advance through.
GettyEngland will face a third-placed team in the last 16 should they top Group C[/caption]
This is how the third-placed teams will fit into the last-16 draw
But then the best four teams to finish third in their group also advance.
This is decided on points then goal difference, goals scored, wins, disciplinary record and lastly qualification performance if level.
However, things get a bit complicated when working out where the four third-placed teams fit into the last-16 knockout draw.
Third-placed teams will go into the third, fourth, sixth and seventh last-16 ties.
The winners of Groups B, C, E and F will meet them in the opening knockout match – and cannot face a team in their group.
Spain won Group B, England can secure top spot in Group C tonight, Group E remains wide open and Portugal advance as Group F winners.
Things then get even more complicated when working out which third-placed teams go into each slot – and it all comes down to which groups’ third-placed teams go through.
For example, if the third-placed teams come from Groups A, B, C and D, then the pairings will be Winner of Group B (WB) vs third-place of Group A (3A), WC vs 3D, WE vs 3B and WF vs 3C.
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As it stands going into Tuesday’s matches, the current best four third-placed teams are Austria (Group D), Slovakia (Group E), Hungary (Group A) and Slovenia (Group C) with Croatia (Group B) and Czech Republic (Group F) the bottom two.
That would see the following last-16 ties – WB vs 3E, WC vs 3D, WE vs 3C and WF vs 3A.
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In fact, due to Italy’s last-gasp equaliser against Croatia, Luka Modric’s team can only get through with the third-placed teams in Group A, D and E – but that is virtually impossible.
Out of the 15 possible permutations for the various combinations of four best third-placed teams, only six are still possible ahead of the last games in Group D and C today.
They are: ABDE, ACDE, ACDF, ACEF, ADEF and CDEF.
Spain, Germany, Portugal, Switzerland and Italy are already in their slots in the last-16.
Spain know they will play a third-placed team from Group D, E or F on Sunday in Cologne while Portugal’s opponents on Monday in Frankfurt will have finished third in Group A, B or C.
Should England top Group C, their last-16 game on Sunday will be in Gelsenkirchen against the third-placed team from one of Group D, E or F – with Italy or Switzerland next.
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That was the approach that brought them success and they seemed to be getting better at it.
But in the last two games they have tried it less and Jordan Pickford has been going long more often.
England’s lack of structure and playing out from the back was dictated by how the first two games went.
The opponents grew in confidence and started to press a little bit higher.
And, as England have made mistakes, they have ended up trying to eliminate risk by playing it longer.
We’ve been looking for solutions and ended up going back to Jordan and there’s no option, we’re under a bit of pressure and he has to go long.
But, more often than not, playing out through the thirds is the way to go.
Let’s do it, let’s go and be brave and dominate the ball.
As it stands ahead of the last Group D matches, with ACDE going through, the Three Lions would face Austria.
And lastly, the winner of Group E – which could still be any of Romania, Belgium, Slovakia or Ukraine – take on the third-placed team from Group A, C or D in Munich on Tuesday.
Got that? Great!
The expansion to 24 teams for Euro 2016 prompted the additional knockout round – and required the four best third-placed teams to join the group winners and runners-up.
Portugal took full advantage, drawing their three group games to scrape through before going on to win the tournament.
At Euro 2020, Portugal could only manage third in their group once again but lost in the last 16 but Czech Republic, Switzerland and Ukraine fell in the quarter-finals.
GettyGareth Southgate knows his side must beat Slovenia to guarantee top spot in Group C[/caption]
