The Buffalo Bills are on upset watch as they play host to the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Bills opened as 10.5 point favorites and have since been bet all the way down to just 7.5. As recently as 1:00 PM Sunday afternoon, this line was at 8.5.
A lot of money is coming in on the Pats, not only against the spread but on the money line as well (+330 to win outright).
Here’s what players you can expect to step up in an upset effort.
Drake Maye o30.5 Rushing Yards (-112 FD)
Death, taxes, running quarterbacks on prime time. When the lights are the brightest, every single play feels like a big one. For this reason quarterbacks, especially running ones, are more likely to pull it down and scramble than they are to throw it away and live to see another down.
You see this all the time from the Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert’s (and Josh Allen’s) of the world. If Drake Maye wants to be in the same conversation as these juggernauts, I expect a heroic effort tonight in his first chance on Sunday Night Football.
“Through the first four games, no team has given up more rushing yards to quarterbacks than the Bills,” writes Derek Farnsworth. “They gave up 70 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 70 rushing yards to Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, 10 rushing yards to Tua Tagovailoa (who never runs),and 49 rushing yards to Spencer Rattler.”
I think this has ladder potential and am considering taking it up to 50+ yards at +310.
Demario Douglas Receptions/Yards
This one is tough for me. Demario Douglas has been seeing his snap share cut into by the rookie Kyle Williams. However, Douglas is still getting the targets. And with a game script that implies either a high scoring game, or a come from behind effort, I like the wide receiver three angle.
He is +175 to record just two receptions. That is some serious value. I also believe his yardage line is playable at just 8.5 yards. I understand why Vegas is fading him, but in an all-eyes-on-us game, I think I’m taking Douglas to get involved in the game plan.
Austin Hooper o1.5 Receptions (-118 FD)
Austin Hooper is coming on in a big way in the first month of the season. Though all the touchdowns are going to his tight end counterpart, Hunter Henry, Hooper has 38, 28, and 24 yards in the last three games.
His yardage prop is just 14.5, but I will be playing his receptions. Josh McDaniels loves two tight end sets and I expect to see a lot of them tonight on the road. I like him as a dump down on play action as well as a sneaky outlet on a short yardage play.
Touchdown Parlay +1408
I said it once, I’ll say it again, running quarterbacks on prime time. At this price, why not take a flyer on the player who has two rushing touchdowns already. Drake Maye’s price is +320 to find the end zone.
With the backfield snap share being the hodge podge it is, there aren’t many Pats I would back to get into the end zone.
I think the only other playable scorer is Hunter Henry, who is still getting a juicy price at +240.
Parlay them together for a +1408 payout.
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