Is Florida State’s Season on the Line Against Miami? Seminoles Face Defining Playoff Test

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Seminoles were riding high after knocking off Alabama and planting themselves firmly in the playoff conversation.

Now, Florida State football’s path to the College Football Playoff has suddenly narrowed. After an unexpected loss to Virginia last week, the Seminoles may find themselves in a must-win situation heading into Saturday’s rivalry showdown with Miami.

As Chop Chat noted, what once felt like a dream season has quickly turned into a test of resilience. The loss to Virginia felt like a huge gut punch to FSU’s early-season momentum, but it doesn’t have to define their season. 

The Playoff is still out there, the ACC Championship is still within reach, and Miami just happens to be the perfect stage to prove that Florida State is still very much alive and belongs in conversations among college football’s elite teams this season. 

Florida State’s Playoff Outlook 

The main question coming into their matchup with Miami is if Florida State loses this game, do they still have a chance to make the College Football Playoff? 

The Seminoles have a massive resume boosting win against Alabama, and it looks even better now, after Alabama went into Athens and knocked off Georgia. FSU’s signature win now gains extra weight in the playoff conversation. 

However, after their matchup against No. 3 Miami on Saturday night, Florida State does not have another ranked opponent on their schedule. That reality raises the stakes even higher for this weekend. The Seminoles don’t have many chances left to add another marquee win to their playoff resume, and a loss would leave them with very little room to recover in the eyes of the committee. 

If Florida State were to drop this game to Miami, they’d fall to 0-2 in ACC play, making the path to even reaching the conference championship game a very steep uphill climb. 

That scenario would raise an even bigger question: would a two-loss FSU team, without an appearance in the ACC title game and only one marquee win over Alabama, have enough to convince the playoff committee?

Right now, that’s impossible to answer. It would depend heavily on how the rest of the playoff contenders across the country fare and whether chaos opens the door for a team like Florida State. 

Florida State has a huge opportunity to avoid that scenario with a win this weekend against the Hurricanes. This matchup feels like the closest thing to a “do-or-die” game you’ll see in October. 

From Playoff Heartbreak to Rock Bottom

Florida State fans don’t need reminding of how close the Seminoles were to the College Football Playoff in 2023. With an undefeated record, the dream was derailed when quarterback Jordan Travis went down with a season-ending injury late in the year. 

The College Football Playoff committee punished FSU from something they could not control, and they ended up missing out on the postseason even after a historic season. 

The fallout was very harsh.

Left out of the playoff despite the perfect record in 2023, Florida State entered 2024 with high expectations. They massively underperformed and were one of the worst Power Four teams in all of college football, finishing with a 2-10 record. 

“Coming off of a 2-10 season there is a certain house money effect to this season.” Many around the FSU program recognize that climbing from one of the worst records in college football to being back in the playoff conversation is already a huge step forward.

At the same time, this is Florida State. A program with national championships, NFL talent, and a standard of excellence. For many, 2024 is viewed as an outlier. The expectation is that the Seminoles should be in this position every year.

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