On Monday, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will collide for the fourth time this season as they battle it out in the final of the Cincinnati Open.
Sinner, who entered this year’s tournament as defending champion, is fresh off a big win over Alcaraz in the final of Wimbledon just over a month ago. The win not only secured the world No. 1 his maiden title at SW19, but also snapped a five-match losing streak to Alcaraz.
En route to the final in Cincinnati, Sinner has yet to drop a set despite going to tiebreaks with Gabriel Diallo in the Round of 32, Adrian Mannarino in the Round of 16, and most recently, Terence Atmane in the semifinals.
The four-time grand slam champ’s return game has been looking particularly lethal, as it has throughout the season, with Sinner currently sitting atop the tournament’s return rating leaderboard.
On the flip side, Alcaraz has looked dominant in his own right, particularly against Luca Nardi, and late in his quarterfinal match with Andrey Rublev. Despite that, Alcaraz has also shown some inconsistent play at times, such as in his second-round match against Damir Dzumhur or the second set of his semifinal match with Alexander Zverev.
Following a second-round elimination at the hands of Gael Monfils last year, Alcaraz will look to dethrone Sinner today and win his eighth Masters 1000 title.
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head
Monday’s match will be the 14th time Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have faced off throughout their careers, and, as previously mentioned, the fourth time the two will meet this season.
Currently, Alcaraz leads the career head-to-head 8-5, and the season head-to-head 2-1, however, it was Sinner who prevailed in their most recent meeting.
Below you can see a full breakdown of the Sinner vs. Alcaraz 2025 head-to-head.
| Year | Winner | Tournament | Surface | Score |
| 2025 | J. Sinner | Wimbledon | Grass | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2025 | C. Alcaraz | French Open | Clay | 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(2) |
| 2025 | C. Alcaraz | ATP Masters 1000 Rome | Clay | 7-6(5), 6-1 |
Of Sinner’s five career wins against Alcaraz, two of those wins are on outdoor hard courts, while on the flip side, five of Alcaraz’s eight wins against sinner have been on hard courts.
Interestingly enough, up until this year, the two had never met in the final of a major tournament. Now, they’re meeting for a fourth straight time in the final of a major.
Sinner vs. Alcaraz Odds & Prediction
Heading into Monday’s match, Jannik Sinner is sitting as a slight betting favorite on most major sports-books following his win at Wimbledon last month.
- Sinner: -200
- Alcaraz: +150
- Sinner: -194
- Alcaraz: +160
Throughout this tournament, Jannik Sinner has shown the consistency that has helped fuel his run as world No. 1. In addition to the fact that Sinner hasn’t lost a set, the four time Grand Slam champ has been able to come up clutch when he needs it most.
On the flip side, Alcaraz recently raised eyebrows in his semifinal match against Zverev when he double-faulted three times in a row during the second game of the second set. The blunder opened the door for the world No. 3 to stay in the match despite a grueling battle with the conditions.
Although the Spaniard was able to prevail against Zverev, when facing a player as consistent as Sinner, sets like that, or his second set against Damir Dzumhur in the second round, could prove to be the difference between winning and losing.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner wins in three sets.
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