The Houston Rockets look like a franchise transformed. Kevin Durantâs arrival has elevated a young, energetic group into one of the leagueâs most explosive offenses, and a 10â3 start has pushed them firmly into the Western Conferenceâs top tier. But for former NBA champion Jeff Teague, Houstonâs rise doesnât change one thing: they still arenât ready to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder when it counts.
And the numbers overwhelmingly support him.
OKCâs Defense Is Operating on a Different Plane
Houstonâs defense ranks fifth in the NBA, a dramatic improvement from years past. But Oklahoma City is in a class of its own. The Thunder allow 105.9 points per game, the best mark in the league by a wide margin. Houston sits at 112.5, strong but nowhere near elite.
The defensive gaps widen the deeper you dig.
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Fastbreak defense: OKC gives up just 10.6 fastbreak points per game (2nd fewest). Houston allows 15.5 (14th).
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Paint protection: The Thunder allow only 38.5 points in the paint, the fewest in the NBA. The Rockets allow 47.2.
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Two-point FG defense: Opponents shoot 46.4% on twos against OKC â the lowest mark in the league. Houston allows 52.8%, still seventh, but not nearly as dominant.
This is where Teagueâs comments hit hardest. He believes OKCâs physicality, size, and positional versatility arenât just advantages â theyâre matchup problems Houston cannot solve with their current personnel.
One Key Flaw Limits the Rockets’ Ceiling
Offensively, the Rockets are as dangerous as any team in basketball. They rank 2nd in scoring (123.9 PPG), just ahead of the Thunderâs 121.3. Houston also scores more points in the paint (53.5 per game) than OKC (51.9), and theyâre the NBAâs best three-point shooting team at 42.3%. The Thunder, meanwhile, shoot 34.3%, ranking 21st.
But offense alone wonât win a playoff-style matchup against the defending champions.
This is where Houstonâs roster construction shows its blemish: the absence of injured point guard Fred VanVleet. With Durant and Alperen Sengun combining for 48.9 points per game and four other Rockets averaging double figures, they have firepower. What they do not have is a ball-handler capable of steadying possessions when elite defenses turn up the pressure.
Teague didnât sugarcoat it.
âThey are going to struggle against OKC without that point guard,â he said.
âThey make you uncomfortable⦠theyâre gonna body up on KD. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso â they just make it tough. Houston is a fire team, but I donât think they can beat OKC.â
Against most opponents, Houstonâs spacing and shooting overwhelm. Against Oklahoma Cityâs layered defensive schemes, their missing stabilizer stands out.
The Verdict
Houston has erased the gap between themselves and most of the Western Conference, but Oklahoma City isnât âmost of the conference.â The Thunder are the standard â the leagueâs best defense with matchup versatility that directly targets Houstonâs weaknesses. The Rockets can outscore anyone on a normal night, but against OKC their missing pieces become obvious. Without a healthy, veteran point guard to stabilize possessions or the defensive layers required to counter the Thunderâs pace and physicality, Houstonâs strengths donât translate cleanly into this matchup.
OKC removes rhythm, collapses space, and attacks indecision â all areas where Houston still shows its youth. The Rockets are explosive enough to scare contenders, but they havenât shown they can withstand the pressure points that define postseason battles. Thatâs why Teagueâs assessment still rings true: Houston is rising fast, but the Thunder remain a tier above them, and until the Rockets fill those gaps, they wonât be ready to knock off the defending champions.
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