NBA Cap Expert Makes Bold Kuminga-Warriors Prediction

Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga is expected to eventually, but reluctantly, accept the team-controlled two-year, $45 million offer, according to Bleacher Report salary cap expert Eric Pincus.

The 22-year-old forward has resisted the deal, which includes a team option for the second year, citing the loss of leverage that comes with a player option and its associated no-trade protections. “The only reason Kuminga hasn’t accepted this contract is because he truly doesn’t want to return to the Warriors,” ClutchPoints’ Brett Siegel reported.


Pincus Calls Kuminga ‘Trickiest Free Agent’

Pincus declared Kuminga the “trickiest free agent” to evaluate this offseason, highlighting the delicate balance between immediate security and long-term flexibility. “While the 22-year-old can take his $8 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, he’d lose about $14 million this season. He’s unlikely to make up that money initially as a free agent in 2026-27,” Pincus wrote.

He added that although turning down the two-year offer could make sense under perfect conditions, the reality rarely aligns with perfection.

“Prediction: The Warriors don’t budge, and Kuminga ends up taking the offer he doesn’t like, which is probably the best decision he can make under the circumstances,” Pincus said.

Kuminga has threatened to sign the $7.9 million qualifying offer, which would allow him to control his immediate future and pursue unrestricted free agency next summer. However, the move carries risk. Accepting the one-year tender would provide minimal financial security if his role diminishes or an injury occurs.


Trade Talks and League Interest

Golden State Warriors, Kevin Durant, Jonathan Kuminga,

GettyGolden State Warriors’ Jonathan Kuminga attempting to shoot over Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray.

Multiple NBA teams have shown interest in negotiating sign-and-trade deals for Kuminga, but Golden State has maintained a firm stance, demanding at least one unprotected first-round pick and a rotation-ready player. Sacramento and Phoenix have already had proposals rejected.

According to Andscape’s Marc J. Spears, Phoenix offered Royce O’NealeNick Richards, all available second-round picks, and a four-year, $90 million framework. Sacramento’s initial offer included rookie Devin Carter, veteran forward Dario Saric, and two second-round picks, later improving to guard Malik Monk and a protected first-round pick tied to a three-year, $63 million deal.

The Milwaukee Bucks also explored possibilities but balked when Golden State requested Bobby Portis, a coach Steve Kerr favorite from Team USA. The negotiating gap remains wide, with Kuminga’s camp insisting on a player option in any deal.


Kuminga’s Camp Frustration

NBA insider Jake Fischer reported that Kuminga’s representatives remain firm, unwilling to consider any offer without a player option.

“No Warriors offer to date has come close to the four years and roughly $90 million that Phoenix had been prepared to furnish him,” Fischer wrote.

ESPN’s Anthony Slater added that Kuminga’s camp views the current Warriors’ stance as treating the young forward like a “pawn.”

If Kuminga accepts the qualifying offer by the Oct. 1 deadline, Golden State would lose valuable trade flexibility. The lower salary and no-trade protections would limit the team’s ability to recoup meaningful assets if a future trade becomes necessary.

Pincus’ prediction underscores the likely outcome of this drawn-out saga: while Kuminga may resist, the combination of financial reality and limited options could ultimately force him back to Golden State on terms he does not fully prefer, leaving the Warriors to navigate a delicate balance between player satisfaction and roster control.

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