With NFL training camps on the horizon, it’s fantasy football season for many. Several teams’ depth charts will be factored into drafting decisions for fans, especially squads with multiple dynamic options to choose from. Even after losing Najee Harris this offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ running back room contains just that.
It’s a double-edged sword, though, as many analysts point out. Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus is among the most recent, as his July 3 redraft running back rankings saw no Pittsburgh halfback land in the top 25. Veteran Jaylen Warren is ranked 26th, with rookie Kaleb Johnson slotting in at 33rd.
Jahnke dove into each player’s respective outlook for 2025. As expected, there’s a mixed bag of potential outcomes.
Dual Outlook for Jaylen Warren Entering Fourth Year With Steelers
Even when the aforementioned Harris was in the fold, Warren managed to make his presence felt. Not only did he play between 45-49% of available offensive snaps in each of the last two seasons, but he made the most of them. Two years ago, he set a career-high mark with 784 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. He also hauled in 61 passes for 370 yards, both personal bests.
Last season, Warren’s rushing production took a hit but his per-touch average (5.2 yards) was very close to his career figure (5.4). Jahnke believes the fourth-year man is “projected to continue” being a borderline fantasy starter thanks to his pass-catching chops.
“His fantasy upside is increased by the possibility of maintaining a significant role over new competition, Kaleb Johnson, primarily in the passing game and potentially in the run game,” Jahnke wrote. “However, there’s also the risk that he could lose playing time if Johnson outperforms the previous competition, Najee Harris. This leaves Warren’s fantasy value somewhat volatile and dependent on how the competition plays out.”
Kaleb Johnson Could Be a Sneaky Value Pick in Rookie Season
Don’t let Warren’s well-rounded profile scare you away from potentially drafting Johnson, though. The 2024-25 All-American rushed for a staggering 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns during his final season at Iowa, also improving as a receiver. His 22 receptions, 188 yards and 2 touchdowns there were all massive increases over his previous production.
Not even a middling pre-draft process, from an athletic testing standpoint, was enough to slow Johnson down. He went to the Steelers in the third round and has the rushing upside to be an impact player quickly. Jahnke motions to Johnson’s new environment and under-the-radar speed as elements that should come to his aid.
“He ranks among the top 25 fastest running backs in the FBS from the last eight seasons, according to PFF’s tracking data, despite a below-average 4.57-second 40-yard dash at the combine,” Jahnke wrote. “He joined the Pittsburgh Steelers, where Jaylen Warren will take all of the receiving work, and Warren and Johnson will compete for the rushing snaps. Chances are that the two will see a split of around 50-50. The good news for Johnson is that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is the most run-heavy coordinator in the league. Smith’s run rate over expected the last three seasons has been 13.0%, 7.9% and 6.2%.”
No other Steeler made the cut in Jahnke’s top-70 rankings. It’s possible that one of Kenneth Gainwell or Trey Sermon latches on, but there’s a clear tier separator in place. The tricky part is determining where that separator is between Warren and Johnson.
Even more interesting: Pittsburgh’s stance may change throughout the next handful of months.
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