Bottom of the 9th, tie game, 2-2 count, pitch on the way…crack! Fernando Tatis Jr. bat flips and stares down into the night sky as a ball crushed 430 feet walks off the game for the San Diego Padres.
Last night was the first walk off of Fernando’s career, but is far from the first clutch moment he’s had. Nevertheless, it was one of the coolest of his young career. And it’s coming at the perfect time because he’s going to need some vintage moments to win the NL MVP this season.
Fernando Tatis Jr’s 2025 Season
After a ridiculously impressive 2024 playoffs, Tatis has had a tremendous start to the 2025 season. As it currently stands, Tatis is second in the NL in fWAR (wins above replacement) with 2.7. His numbers have been video game-esque, as he is 100th percentile in batting run value, 99th percentile in fielding run value, and 88th percentile in base running run value.
There are two things that stand out as different for Tatis this year – he’s hitting leadoff again and is striking out way less. It had been a few years since Tatis was primarily hitting leadoff, and the electricity he brings at the top of the lineup proves he’s there to stay. The approach is the major change that we’ve seen in Tatis’ game. His strikeout rate is down an absurd 7.7% this year compared to his career numbers. Both his whiff rate and chase rate are also improved compared to 2024 and 2023. Overall, he looks way more in control of his at-bats and is patient until he gets his pitch.
Fernando Tatis looks well on his way to the best season of his career.
Other MVP Frontrunners
Even with how well Tatis has played, there are many other guys putting up MVP-caliber seasons. Here are the top contenders:
Shohei Ohtani – I think it’s clear to most fans who the biggest competitor for MVP will be: Shohei Ohtani. He’s won MVP three of the past four seasons and widely considered to be the best player in the sport. The big question is whether or not he’ll end up pitching this season, which he’s expected to do at some point this year. If Ohtani is back in the rotation relatively soon, Fernando will need to significantly outperform him offensively to justify taking home the award.
Corbin Carroll – Carroll currently leads the NL in fWAR at 2.8. Even though he had a bit of an off season last year, we saw the superstar potential in his 2023 season. That was an elite year for Carroll as he posted 5.4 fWAR and a 130 wRC+. If he is more consistent throughout this season, he will blow those 2023 numbers out of the water.
Pete Alonso/Pete-Crow Armstrong – Both Alonso and Armstrong feel like longshots to win the award, but deserve to be discussed given how well they’ve played. Alonso is balling offensively with an OPS over 1.000 and NL leading 36 RBIs. Meanwhile, Armstrong looks like a 5-tool player. His OPS is sitting at .852 and he may also end up being the most valuable fielder and base runner in the MLB.
Who Will Win MVP?
The favorite to win the award is still Shohei Ohtani. Per BetMGM, Ohtani’s odds sit at a favorable +150, with Tatis second highest at +500. That feels justified with the season Ohtani is having; he’s had an OPS over 1.000 the past two years and it’s currently sitting at 1.035.
There’s always a chance that Carroll, Alonso, or Armstrong continue their monster seasons, but it does feel like this year may be Tatis vs Ohtani.
The one advantage Tatis has is that he plays in the field. If he wins the Gold Glove in Right Field that is a big advantage for him. Even with fielding on his side, the award is primarily about offense. Tatis will need to put up his best hitting season ever to hang with Ohtani. Additionally, if Ohtani pitches a significant amount of innings, it may be difficult for Tatis to jump him.
So what’s the path for Fernando Tatis to win MVP?
Bottom line, Tatis needs to have his best season ever. Even then, if Ohtani pitches at a high level for a significant amount of time, the award is likely his. But if he doesn’t, there’s a much higher chance for Tatis to win the award than most fans are letting on.
Tatis’ path to win it is elite fielding production with an OPS at least over .950, Ohtani isn’t valuable on the mound, and the Padres need to win the NL West. If those things happen, Fernando Tatis Jr will be the 2025 NL MVP.
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