If you predicted the New England Patriots, the Denver Broncos, and the Jacksonville Jaguars would be the three teams competing for the No. 1 seed come week 17 of the NFL season, you would’ve been laughed out of the room.
But that’s where we stand following the Pats come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens in week 16. New England missed an opportunity to keep pace with the Broncos last week with their collapse against the Buffalo Bills, but they redeemed themselves on SNF, while the Broncos’ 11-game win streak was snapped by the Jaguars.
If Denver could have staved off the Jags, they would still be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Now, with the Pats win and the Jags upset over the Broncos, we have a three dog race atop the AFC.
Updated No. 1 Seed Odds Heading Into Week 17
Denver and New England are now tied with records of 12-3, while Jacksonville sits at 11-4, leading the AFC South.
The Broncos and Pats have traded spots atop the AFC for the better part of the last two months, as both have sustained 10+ game win streaks this season. As of Monday, Dec. 22, the No. 1 seed odds are 46 percent for the Broncos, 38 percent for the Patriots, and 10 percent for the Jaguars (the final six percent is split between the Bills and Chargers).
New England undoubtedly has the easiest path to get there. Though Denver holds the tiebreaker with the Pats (strength of victories), New England is playing the Brady Cook led New York Jets and the Quinn Ewers led Miami Dolphins to finish the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos will play the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Kansas City would have been a much tougher opponent for Denver had Patrick Mahomes not gone down with an ACL injury, but the Chargers will be playing for seeding come week 18 and have already handed the Broncos a loss this season.
Meanwhile, the Jags are lingering around, with the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans on their schedule to finish the season. They have something to continue to play for, as Houston continues to close the AFC South gap.
Jacksonville would need to win out while having Denver and New England BOTH lose at least one game. Not impossible.
Patriots Looking to Get Healthy Heading Into the Playoffs
The Patriots clinched their first playoff berth since 2021 on Sunday night. It was an entirely different team back in 2021, quarterbacked by Mac Jones and coached by Bill Belichick.
New England suffered it’s fair share of injuries on Sunday night: rookie sensation TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kayshon Boutte, DT Khyiris Tonga, DT Joshua Farmer, and CB Charles Woods all left the game with injuries.
The Pats were also missing OL Will Campbell, DT Milton Williams, and LB Robert Spillane. Campbell and Williams are on IR, while Spillane suffered an injury against the Bills.
Williams is eligible to be activated this week, while Campbell can be activated ahead of week 18.
New England is still looking to clinch the AFC East, which they can do by winning out. They can also clinch this week with a win and a Bills loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
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