The New England Patriots came out of their bye week and into Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills, confident in their ability to take a second win of the season over their AFC East archrivals, a win that would seal the once-dominant Patriots’ first divisional title in six years.
Things didn’t work out that way. But for the Patriots, all is not lost. Far from it. The Patriots remain in a highly encouraging position even after the 35-31 loss at a snowy Gillette Stadium.
For the first 30 minutes, it looked like the Patriots would make a major statement, cruising to victory without much trouble. New England scored touchdowns on three of its first four drives, and a field goal on a fifth, while the Patriots’ defense blanked the Bills until quarterback Josh Allen threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to running back James Cook with 1:56 left to play in the half.
The Patriots walked into the locker room at the half with a seemingly comfortable 24-7 lead.
But the game changed quickly after that.
Josh Allen Takes Over
In a battle between the reigning NFL MVP, Allen, and a leading candidate for the award this year in Patriots sophomore signal-caller Drake Maye, the eight-year veteran Allen won out.
The Bills’ defense in the second half managed to shut down New England outside of one explosive touchdown play. The Patriots’ defense, on the other hand, allowed touchdowns on five consecutive Bills drives.
For the first time in his 14 games this season, Maye was held to fewer than 200 yards passing, finishing with 155 on 14 completions in 23 attempts for a season-low passer rating of 62.8.
But most disappointing was the fact that with a chance to close out the AFC East race, New England failed to get the job done, and failed in excruciating fashion, blowing a 21-point lead.
So what could possibly be the encouraging news to come out of the otherwise dismal day in New England?
Patriots Still Control Own Destiny
Despite the dispiriting defeat, the Patriots remain completely in control of whether they win the AFC East. The simple fact is, the Patriots, like the Bills, have three games remaining on their regular-season schedule. If they win all three, they win the division â no matter what the Bills do.
But there’s even more encouraging news for New England. Based on the current winning percentages of their final three opponents, New England has the seventh-easiest schedule left to play of all NFL teams.
The Patriots face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 16, followed by the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Together, those teams have a winning percentage of .390.
Patriots Tiebreaker Situation Also Looks Good
The Patriots at 11-3, remain one game ahead of the 10-4 Bills, but even if the Bills manage to win one more game than New England in the final three weeks, winding up in a tie at the top of the division, the Patriots still have a favorable outlook when it comes to tiebreakers.
In the first tiebreaker, record within the division, New England sits at 3-1 with two divisional games to play. Buffalo is at 3-2 with one AFC East game remaining. The Patriots would need to lose to both the Jets and Dolphins, when the Bills defeat the Jets in Week 18, for the two teams’ divisional records to deadlock.
Next comes record against common opponents. The Patriots currently have an 8-1 record against teams that both they and the Bills have faced. Buffalo’s record is 8-2. In other words, if the Bills defeat the Jets and the Cleveland Browns, the best record they can compile is 10-2. The Patriots need only win two of three to deadlock on the second tiebreaker as well.
In the conference-record tiebreaker, the Patriots are 6-3, the Bills 7-3. So once again, the Patriots control their own outcome. Win all three of their remaining games, and they win the division.
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