Former New England Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel was hired as his former team’s head coach on January 12, owner Robert Kraft’s second coaching change in two years after he fired legendary coach Bill Belichik after the 2023 season.
Since then, Vrabel has been hard at work on not only a nearly-total overhaul of the team’s roster, but the Patriots’ culture and “mentality” as well.
Now, according to one top NFL expert, Vrabel’s efforts are turning out even better than expected.
Clearly, something had to be done. The franchise that was called the greatest dynasty in NFL history under Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, winning six Super Bowls from 2001 to 2018, has suffered a sudden and precipitous fall, with just one winning record in the last five seasons and, most embarrassingly, back-to-back four-win seasons heading into 2025.
Ruthless Remake of Patriots Roster
Vrabel has been ruthless is remaking the New England roster, purging most of the remaining players who were acquired by Belichick, as well as by one-year coach Jerod Mayo, putting his own brand on the team which is now fully his own, the success or failure of the 2025 team riding completely on Vrabel’s back.
The Patriots have, of course, not played a game yet, with their season opening on September 7 at home against the Las Vegas Raiders, but Vrabel’s efforts have already paid off â at least according to one NFL expert, ESPN senior writer Mike Clay, who published his final preseason NFL projections and rankings on Sunday.
‘Sleeper’ Patriots Projected to Make Great Leap Forward
Last season, the Patriots 4-13 record ranked them 29th of the NFL’s 32 teams, after all of the tiebreakers were calculated. But in an uncommonly optimistic outlook, the ESPN prognosticator sees New England under Vrabel leaping 13 places up the overall ladder, to No. 16 in the league â making the Patriots the NFL’s “sleeper” team, Clay believes.
“AFC sleeper alert! The Patriots are much better in nearly all areas compared with last season,” wrote Clay in his rankings on Sunday.
Analytics-Based Projection Less Optimistic
“After finishing with the fewest sacks in the NFL last season (28), the defense improved by signing defensive tackle Milton Williams, edge Harold Landry III, linebacker Robert Spillane and cornerback Carlton Davis III,” Clay continued, explaining his prediction.
“Second-year quarterback Drake Maye will have wide receiver Stefon Diggs and rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson as options. And Mike Vrabel replaced Jerod Mayo as head coach,” he concluded.
The Clay prediction should he heartening to the Patriots organization and New England fans, but it shook be noted that it is only the prognostication of one ESPN expert. In the latest ESPN Analytics Power Ranking projections, the Patriots place 23rd â still a noteworthy upgrade from their actual finish last season â with a record of 8-9, or 7.9 and 9.0 to use the precise, computer-generated numbers.
The ESPN Analytics projections also see the Patriots with a 30.5 percent chance to qualify for the playoffs, something that have not accomplished since 2021 and only once since the 2019 season.
And not that many Patriots fans expect their 2025 team to win the Super Bowl, at least the ESPN Analytics calculations give them a non-zero chance, seeing the franchise that holds the NFL record for most Super Bowl trophies with a 0.7 percent chance to win the whole thing this year.
That percentage translates to odds of 143-1.
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