PFF Simulator Drops Jaw-Dropping Super Bowl Claim About the Broncos

According to one of the most respected analytics platforms in football, the Denver Broncos are the most likely team in the NFL to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. 

As Sports Illustrated noted, Pro Football Focus released its latest Super Bowl simulations this week, and the results were stunning. 

The Denver Broncos sit atop the league with a 17% chance to win the Super Bowl, the highest mark of any team in the NFL. 

The Seattle Seahawks are the next highest at 13.9%.

That projection comes after Denver surged to a 13-3 record, clinched the AFC West for the first time since 2015, and positioned itself to control the No. 1 seed heading into the postseason. 

The simulation seems to validate what head coach Sean Payton boldly said months ago that this roster had championship potential. 

At the time, many around the league called the Broncos frauds and laughed at Payton’s remarks. 

Now, analytics are backing him up. 

Denver isn’t just projected to win the Super Bowl more than any other team. PFF’s simulations also give the Broncos a 30% chance to reach the Super Bowl. 

With the Chargers expected to sit most starters on Sunday, the Broncos are heavy favorites to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed. 

Why the Numbers Love Denver So Much

The Broncos’ rise isn’t built on hype and excitement. 

PFF’s simulator factors in efficiency metrics, matchup strength, and home-field advantage. 

If the Broncos secure the No. 1 seed with a win over the Chargers, their path becomes very favorable. 

They’d earn a first-round bye and potentially host every playoff game until the Super Bowl at Empower Field at Mile High, where Denver has lost just once all season.

Payton has been vocal about the importance of that advantage.

“You skip a game where you’re at risk to not play well,” Payton said of the first-round bye. “You skip right to the next round.”

According to PFF, Denver’s championship odds jump noticeably in simulations where the road to the Super Bowl runs through Denver. 

They will most likely avoid having to go into hostile road environments late in the postseason. 

A Potential Super Bowl Rematch Nobody Expected

A funny twist in the simulation is who sits just behind Denver.

The Seahawks rank second with roughly 14% odds, followed closely by the Los Angeles Rams.

That raises the possibility of a Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl, a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII that still lingers painfully in franchise history.

It’s a scenario few would’ve imagined entering the season, but one analytics now consider the most likely SB matchup. 

But Denver has a 3% better chance to win it all then Seattle does. 

After those two teams, the rest of the league’s odds trail significantly. The 49ers, Bills, and Rams round out the top tier, while the Texans and Patriots are right behind them. 

Simulations don’t win games, but when the results are there and the metrics and numbers all favor Denver, it’s certainly meaningful and hard to ignore. 

Unlike the PFF metrics, DraftKings Sportsbook and most Vegas odds have the Broncos as the third best odds to win the Super Bowl, behind both the Seahawks and Rams.

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