The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t expect Jesús Luzardo to rewrite the record books in June—but they definitely didn’t expect this version of history. After giving up 20 earned runs in just 5.2 innings over his last two starts, Luzardo now owns the worst back-to-back stat line in MLB history. And the timing couldn’t be worse for a team that just coughed up first place in the NL East.
Let’s break it down: On May 31, Luzardo gave up 12 earned runs on 12 hits in 3.1 innings. Six days later, he allowed eight more earned runs in just 2.1 innings. Before those outings, he had a 2.15 ERA across 11 starts. Now? It’s 4.46—more than double what it was just two weeks ago.
It’s not just about results—it’s about how he’s getting there. And the data is screaming.
What’s Gone Wrong?
According to Statcast, his spin rates and velocity are mostly intact, but Luzardo’s location and command have completely evaporated. Take the June 5 outing: his four-seamer averaged 96.5 mph, right on par with his yearly average. But he generated only two whiffs on 14 fastballs and gave up an average exit velocity of 88.8 mph. His sweeper? It got crushed, with an average exit velocity of 93.9 mph and a max of 106.6.
His pitch shapes haven’t changed drastically, but the contact quality sure has. In his May 25 start—his last good one—his sweeper averaged 86.0 mph with a whiff rate of 56%. That dropped to 13% on May 31 and 33% on June 5. That’s a glaring red flag for a pitch he throws more than any other.
Hitters aren’t just putting the ball in play—they’re squaring him up. On May 31, his sinker allowed a max exit velocity of 109.5 mph. On June 5, that same pitch was hit as hard as 103 mph. Across the last two starts, his changeup—usually a weapon—was tattooed for a 103.5 mph peak exit velocity.
Simply put, Luzardo isn’t missing bats, and when hitters swing, they’re doing damage.
Is It Fatigue? Mechanics? Regression?
There’s no official word of injury, but it’s fair to ask whether Luzardo is laboring. The drop in induced vertical break on his fastball and sweeper, combined with inconsistent command, suggests mechanical issues—or at least fatigue. His extension has also fluctuated, possibly affecting pitch deception.
It’s also possible we’re seeing some regression. Luzardo had stranded an unsustainably high percentage of baserunners before these two blowups. Even elite pitchers get unlucky, but this is more than bad bounces. It’s barrels, walks, and chaos.
What It Means for the Phillies
The timing couldn’t be worse. Aaron Nola is sidelined. The Phillies have lost six of seven. And they’re now chasing the Mets in the standings after a hot start. Luzardo was supposed to be the rotation’s stabilizer with Zack Wheeler, especially after the team gave up a notable prospect haul to get him.
Now, they’re left hoping he can stop the bleeding against the Chicago Cubs next week.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Luzardo’s stuff hasn’t completely vanished. His velocity is still there. His slider and changeup still flash elite movement. He just isn’t putting it all together right now. Whether it’s mechanics or confidence, the Phillies need to figure it out fast.
Because if Luzardo doesn’t get back on track soon, it’s not just going to hurt his numbers—it could derail Philadelphia’s entire season.
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