The Tampa Bay Buccaneersâ loss to the Carolina Panthers in what was arguably the most important game of the season has put their playoff hopes in jeopardy. With a 7-8 record, Tampa Bay now trails Carolina, who improved to 8-7, by one game heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
Although the loss put the Buccaneers at an immediate disadvantage, playoff predictors still rate them as more likely to make the playoffs than to miss out.
“The Athletic model has the Bucs at 51 percent to win the NFC South, which basically reflects them being a slight favorite at home in Week 18 and favored to win in Miami this week,” wrote Greg Auman of Fox Sports.
The NFL.com playoff predictor gives the Buccaneers a 58% chance of making the playoffs, slightly higher than the division-leading Panthers, who are projected at 42%.
Strength of schedule is favorable for Tampa Bay, as their next opponent is the Miami Dolphins (6-9). Meanwhile, Carolina will face the Seattle Seahawks (12-3).
Tampa Bay will need to win the NFC South to make the playoffs, as the NFC is loaded with strong teams.
GettyQB Baker Mayfield.
A Very Tough Stretch
Tampa Bay started the season with a 6-2 record and a rather comfortable lead in the NFC South, but has gone 1-6 in their last seven games, a losing stretch that has cost them the division lead.
“The Bucsâ current slide, losing six of seven games, matches their worst stretch since losing seven of eight in 2018. They also had a 1-6 run in 2023,” wrote Auman.
Notably, all three of the Buccaneersâ most recent losses came against teams in the NFC South, including the Saints, Falcons, and most recently, the Panthers.
GettyThe Panthers are in first place in the NFC South after defeating the Buccaneers.
What Went Wrong in Carolina
Tampa Bay’s passing attack was not good enough in the loss to Carolina, as several of the Buccaneersâ top playmakers in the passing game had unusually unproductive days this past Sunday.
“In 95 career games with five or more catches, Bucs’ Mike Evans has never had fewer yards than the 31 he had in Sunday’s loss to Carolina. In 73 career games with five or more catches, Bucs’ Chris Godwin has never had fewer yards than the 30 he had in Sunday’s loss to Carolina,” wrote Auman.
The offense was also unable to find any success with big chunk plays, which was another major factor in the loss.
“Bucs had one pass play of 15 yards or longer in the loss to Carolina. Theyâve had at least four in every game this year except the Rams loss, when they had one. In two wins over Carolina last year, had 7 and 12 such plays,” wrote Auman.
The Buccaneers will need to perform better in the final two weeks if they want to punch their ticket to the postseason.
GettyThe Buccaneers and Panthers will play again in Week 18.
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