We are now 40 days from the Boston Red Sox reporting to Spring Training in Fort Myers, FL, and officially 83 days from the start of the 2026 MLB season. Externally, the Red Sox are linked to free agents and are viewed as potential trade partners. They are still slowly building the roster for the upcoming 2026 season, as they look to take the next step. Internally, there are some questions about who will step up for the Red Sox in the lineup and the rotation.
When MLB.com released its “1 Prediction for every MLB team in 2026”, there was an interesting selection for the Red Sox. It’s not from the lineup, but from the rotation. Furthermore, it’s not from the front end, but the back end of the rotation.
Red Sox Johan Oviedo Could be Surprising Rotation Arm
GettyJohan Oviedo is a Boston Red Sox now
When it comes to the pitching staff for the Red Sox, it is clear that Garrett Crochet is the ace of the group. Behind him, it is a mystery of who will be his No. 2. Could it be Sonny Gray, whom the Red Sox traded for back in November? Will it be someone else in-house or through another trade? Other storylines are looking at where Brayan Bello will be slotted in the rotation, along with the other newcomer, Johan Oviedo.
MLB.com Red Sox beat writer Ian Browne, when making his prediction for the team, stated that Oviedo could be a surprising arm in the rotation for 2026. Browne gave the idea that, since chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, and the Red Sox have been adept at maximizing pitch mixes, Oviedo could be another success story.
Oviedo, in 2025 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, finished with a 2-1 record in nine starts, a 3.57 ERA, and 42 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. He returned briefly after having Tommy John surgery in 2024. The hope is that he can return to his 2022 season form, where he finished with a 4-3 record, a 3.21 ERA, 54 strikeouts in 56 innings, and an ERA+ of 126. If Oveido gets anywhere back to that in 2026, it could be a solid move for the Red Sox.
That said, what is it about Oviedo that gives the impression of him being a surprise arm in the rotation for 2026?
All About Maxing Out the Extension
The big takeaway for Oviedo is his elite extension. According to Baseball Savant, his extension is in the 98th percentile, meaning that hitters have trouble picking up on his pitches. It also helps when Oveido is 6-foot-6, 275 pounds, and makes people feel like he’s pitching right on top of them in the box. It’s no surprise how much Breslow loves having pitchers with elite extension on the Red Sox.
He throws from a 26-degree arm angle, which gives his five-pitch mix of a four-seam, slider, curve, sinker, and change something for hitters to consider. While his pitching wasn’t fully graded on Baseball Savant, his whiff% came out to 29.9% and his K% to 24.7. His barrel% and hard-hit% came out to 6.9 and 35.3% respectivly.
Back on Dec. 5, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote about Oviedo and how his fastball has gotten some life to it, post-TJ. He stated that Oviedo’s fastball gained a rise of five inches, with results showing the life of his 4-seam took on a new meaning. Compared to his 2023 numbers (.273/.465 BA/SLG), Oviedo’s 2025 numbers saw his fastball go to .149/.383. Furthermore, his whiff rate went up to 31% from the 19% two years prior.
GettyJohan Oviedo
One thing that Petrillo stated that really stood out was how the Red Sox view their pitchers from throwing fastballs. “The Red Sox, contrary to popular belief, don’t prevent their pitchers from throwing fastballs. They just try to not let them throw bad fastballs for the sake of saying you did.” If that is the case, and Oviedo has a solid fastball now to get hitters out, he might be the No. 5 in the rotation come Opening Day.
It’ll be interesting to see who is behind Crochet 2 through 5, but if Oviedo can be a reliable arm in the No. 4 or No. 5 slot and pitches well, this could be beneficial for the Red Sox in 2026.
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