The Boston Red Sox are a team to keep close tabs on during MLB’s hot stove season. Last offseason, the Red Sox were very active in both free agency and the trade market. Craig Breslow went out and made plenty of meaningful moves, like signing Alex Bregman and Aroldis Chapman via free agency.
However, a recent prediction has the Red Sox losing a vital part of their starting rotation to another big spender in MLB, the San Francisco Giants.
More MLB on Heavy: Red Sox Urged to Sign Padresâ $189 Million Predicted Starter
Giants Predicted to Sign Lucas Giolito
In a recent predictions piece that outlines the starting pitching market by Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller, Lucas Giolito is predicted to sign with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year, $35 million deal:
“But while he was much less of a strikeout machine, he was arguably a better pitcher than ever before, posting a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts while playing a major role in Boston’s postseason push. Can he keep it going on a multi-year deal? Or is he destined for some serious regression in the home run departmentâ9.3% HR/FB in 2025 compared to a career rate of 14.3%?”
“Prediction: Two years, $35M with San Francisco Giants”
(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 04: Lucas Giolito #54 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with teammates after coming out of the game in the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on July 04, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Giolito was not extended a qualifying offer to stay with the Red Sox, which is why he will be testing out the market this Winter.
He may not be the same starter he was from 2019-2022, but 2025 was somewhat of a resurgence season for Giolito. He bounced around between three teams in 2023, before missing all of the 2024 season with injury.
This year, Giolito pitched 145 innings over 26 starts and posted a 3.41 ERA and struck out 121 batters. He was essential to the Red Sox playoff push, but he was unable to pitch in October due to an elbow injury.
More MLB on Heavy: Red Sox-Twins Trade Idea Sends All-Star Starter to Boston
Why the Giants Are a Good Fit for Lucas Giolito?
The Giants are expected to be big spenders this offseason with hopes of making it back to the MLB playoffs. With the president of baseball operations, Buster Posey, in control of roster management, San Francisco is expected to be in play for many high-dollar free agents this winter.
Aside from that, the Giants also need some additional help at the top-mid level of their rotation. Robbie Ray and Logan Webb are a great 1-2 punch, but after that, the arms San Francisco has become less reliable.
$35 million seems like the right evaluation for Lucas Giolito, and his free agency sweepstakes will be interesting to follow as the offseason progresses.
More MLB on Heavy: Tigers Predicted to Sign Yankeesâ 4.79 ERA Pitcher in Free Agency
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Red Sox 3.41 ERA Pitcher Predicted to Sign with San Francisco Giants appeared first on Heavy Sports.