Not a huge surprise for the Red Sox now that the MLB season is officially over and the Dodgers have been crowned champs, but the team got an update on the situation with starting pitcher Lucas Giolito on Monday, as he opted to decline the final year of his contract, which would be worth $19 million.
The Red Sox will still owe Giolito a $1.5 million buyout, but he is now heading for free agency.
The lingering question is whether the Red Sox will offer Giolito the qualifying offer, which is worth $22 million for a one-year deal, a move that could secure Giolito’s presence in 2026 after a successful 2025 campaign that ended with a frustrating elbow injury.
Red Sox Can Give Lucas Giolito a Qualifying Offer
To break down the pros and cons of that decision, the Red Sox would start by offering Giolito the QO, but if they do so, he could accept it and force his way back onto the roster at $22 million. That’s risky given the fact that Giolito has now had two major elbow operations in his career and couldn’t stay healthy enough to pitch in the postseason.
Or, the Red Sox could offer him the QO, and see if he signs elsewhere on a longer-term deal next year. That was the tack the Red Sox took with Nick Pivetta at this time last year. Players who have the QO attached to them but leave anyway net the team losing the player a draft pick. Pivetta brought Boston a third-rounder. Because they’re over the tax threshold, a Giolito pick would land after the fourth round.
Lucas Giolito Had a Very Good 2025
Much of the decision rests with how much the Red Sox would be inclined to welcome Giolito back after a season in which he went 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA .
If the worst thing that happens out of offering him the $22 million QO is that he signs it and comes back for a year, that’s not exactly devastating. It could prove to be a good deal–there was a stretch, after all, in which Giolito went 9-3 with a 2.29 ERA over 17 starts, before his elbow began to hurt.
Remember, too, that Pivetta was 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA for the Padres this year–if he had signed the QO, that would have worked out a lot better than the Walker Buehler one-year signing, which was essentially for the $21 million qualifying offer.
Red Sox Need Pitching Depth
As Red Sox veteran beat writer Sean McAdam said last month, it’s not too tough a decision to give Giolito the qualifying offer, not with the importance of pitching.
“To me, I don’t think this is much of a decision at all. You just saw how difficult it is to have sufficient pitching depth throughout the year. They ran out of pitching in September,” McAdam said on his podcast, “The Fenway Rundown.”
“If you went to go sign somebody with his resume for a single year, you’d come pretty close to giving him $22 million. You’re protecting yourself that if he goes elsewhere, you get a pick out of it. If he accepts it, is it a little overpriced, is it a little bit of a risk? Yes. Guess what? All pitching is a little overpriced and a little risky.”
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