The Toronto Blue Jays might have won the American League in 2025, but The Athletic believes their first massive offseason swing could age poorly. Keith Law didn’t mince words when breaking down the seven-year, $210 million contract Toronto handed to Dylan Cease—a pitcher he describes as durable, occasionally dominant, but far from consistent.
And yes, the Yankees are watching closely. Whenever a division rival commits nine figures to a starter with this much volatility, it becomes everyone’s business.
Toronto Pays Ace Money for a Non-Ace Track Record
On the surface, Cease checks the boxes teams crave: innings, durability, and flashes of elite stuff. He has never missed a start since debuting in 2019, logging 162 starts over the last five full seasons. For a Jays rotation dealing with Shane Bieber’s post-TJ workload limit and Trey Yesavage’s expected sophomore dip, that stability matters.
But Law’s evaluation highlights why this deal raised eyebrows around the league: Cease has pitched like an ace exactly once.
His 2022 season—a 2.20 ERA, dominant slider, second in the AL Cy Young voting—is the outlier. His 2024 campaign was strong too (3.47 ERA), but outside those peaks? Cease has looked far more like a mid-rotation arm than someone worth $210 million.
And 2025 didn’t change that narrative.
Cease finished the season with a 4.55 ERA across 32 starts, underperforming his peripherals for the fourth time in five years. This isn’t bad luck, Law argues—it’s a pattern.
The Jays bet on durability. They bet on untapped upside. But they also paid as if those things were guaranteed to show up every season.
The Underlying Concerns The Athletic Says Toronto Ignored
Law offered a blunt breakdown of Cease’s flaws:
He collapses with runners on base.
Hitters consistently produce better results against Cease from the stretch, a long-term issue that hasn’t improved.
Lefties still expose him.
His slider is elite, but because he rarely trusts a changeup, his platoon splits remain a problem.
Command remains shaky.
Even in his “good” seasons, Cease rarely posts clean, low-traffic outings.
So why did Toronto commit seven years? Law suggests the answer is timing and desperation. After coming within two outs of a championship and watching revenue surge, the Jays decided to strike early and heavily. With the free-agent market thin behind Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez, Toronto effectively paid to secure stability before someone else could.
But this deal sets a new bar—and not in a good way. Law even wrote that Valdez and Suárez “should try to clear” Cease’s number because they’re simply better pitchers. That alone says everything about how aggressive—some might say reckless—Toronto had to be to get this done.
Cease was The Athletic’s No. 9 free agent, the top right-hander available, but still not the type of arm most executives want to bet seven years on. Toronto sees an ace. Law sees a stretched contract designed to manipulate luxury-tax math—and a pitcher whose career says “good, not great.”
For the Yankees, this deal does two things:
- It removes one mid-tier option from the board.
- It likely raises the price on every remaining starter.
If Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are now the “best available” behind Valdez and Suárez, the Yankees will feel that inflation too.
Toronto believes Cease can help them finish what they started. But The Athletic’s takeaway is clear: the Jays paid a premium for a pitcher who has rarely been premium.
Sometimes, the biggest early swing of the offseason ends up being the easiest one to regret.
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