This Concerning Stat May Decide Trae Young’s Future in Atlanta

All-star guard Trae Young is back on the floor, but the Atlanta Hawks’ defense is delivering a louder verdict than his box scores. Since his return from injury, Atlanta’s struggles on that end have sharpened questions about fit, value, and long-term direction, questions that now sit squarely at the center of Young’s future with the franchise.

Defensive Collapse Raises Alarms

Since being routed by the Washington Wizards on November 25, Atlanta’s defensive rating has ballooned to 119.6, ranking 27th in the NBA over that stretch. Opponents have shot 40 percent from three-point range, a mix of poor luck and recurring breakdowns. The Hawks have allowed the fifth-most open threes in the league during that span, defined as shots with the nearest defender four to six feet away.

The on-off numbers paint an even harsher picture. With Young on the court, Atlanta owns the worst defensive rating in the NBA at 127.1. When he sits, that number drops to 113.1, which would rank 10th league-wide. The win-loss split mirrors that disparity: the Hawks are 2-8 with Young and 13-8 without him.

Those trends have persisted despite offensive production. Atlanta has averaged 124.25 points per game during its current four-game losing streak, yet has surrendered 134.25 points per contest. The offense hasn’t cratered. The defense has.

Return Highlights the Problem, Not the Solution

Young’s individual performances haven’t been the issue. In a 126-123 loss to the Chicago Bulls, he finished with 22 points and 15 assists while committing just one turnover in 30 minutes. Still, the Hawks fell again and are now 0-4 since his return, with losses to Chicago and Charlotte.

Head coach Quin Snyder pointed directly to execution and defensive urgency afterward.

“I think the first half we had a lot of breakdowns from an execution standpoint,” Snyder said after the game. “Both teams shot it well; we just have to do more to impact the percentage where shots aren’t as clean. I thought we did a better job with that in the second half… The first half, our transition defense wasn’t as good as it needed to be, but by and large, we need to be better defensively.”

That regression is especially jarring because Atlanta showed signs of defensive competence earlier in the season. Young’s return hasn’t stabilized that end, it has coincided with its collapse.

Contract Reality and Trade Pressure Mount

Young was eligible for a contract extension last offseason, but no deal materialized. Since then, the league’s financial landscape has shifted dramatically. Second-apron penalties have forced teams to reassess max-level commitments, particularly for small, high-usage guards who struggle defensively.

NBA insider Jake Fischer recently contextualized the market.

“There are numerous lead guards who have already been mentioned this winter as, depending on circumstance, potentially available on the trade market,” Fischer wrote for The Stein Line. “Memphis’ Ja Morant, Atlanta’s Trae Young, Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball, Cleveland’s Darius Garland, even the Clippers’ Harden … all are being monitored in various front offices.”

CBS Sports analyst Sam Quinn went further.

“Atlanta has cooled off a bit, but is still 12-9 without Trae Young this season,” Quinn wrote. “There’s a real argument to be made that this Hawks team is better, or at the very least more versatile and flexible, without its supposed franchise player.”

Young holds a player option for the 2026-27 season, which gives Atlanta time, but not comfort. Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have already proven they can be long-term pillars. Young’s return isn’t just an audition for the Hawks. It’s an audition for the league.

If he wants an extension in the $40-50 million per year range, the equation is simple. He must add that level of value, especially on defense, to a team that has already shown it can weather his absence.

At 15-16 with a brutal stretch ahead, the Hawks’ margin for error is gone. The defense will determine their season. It may also determine Trae Young’s future in Atlanta.

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