The Minnesota Vikings may have found a winning offensive formula for J.J. McCarthy following a 31-0 blowout over the Washington Commanders — but it’s come at a cost.
With less than a 1% chance of making the postseason, the Vikings’ remaining schedule is solely proving grounds for McCarthy. The 22-year-old quarterback must progress quickly if he’s going to have job security as the team’s starter in 2026 after a historically poor start to his career.
Last Sunday’s win over the Commanders was a step in the right direction. McCarthy completed 16 of 23 pass attempts for 163 yards, three touchdowns and a career-high 129.4 passer rating. It was also the first game of his career where he did not turn the ball over.
Facing a potential quarterback dilemma, the Vikings were positioned to have a high-value draft pick that could help address the matter in light of this season’s struggles. McCarthy’s performance inspires some confidence moving forward, but it’s come at the cost of a top-10 draft pick.
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert reported on Monday, December 8, that “yesterday’s victory pushed the Vikings out of the projected top 10 of the 2026 draft.
“ESPN Analytics now has them at No. 11, with a 45.6% chance to get back into the top 10 by the end of the season.”
JJ McCarthy’s Future to be Defined by Final 4 Vikings Games
McCarthy’s first six starts raised major concerns that the Vikings’ multiyear plans to prop up a quarterback on a rookie-scale contract were all for naught.
He entered Week 14 with the NFL’s third-lowest QBR (24.1) among 50 quarterbacks who had started at least one game this season. The Vikings had struggled to sustain drives all season and simply weren’t getting enough plays to impact the game on offense.
That changed upon Sunday’s kickoff.
The Vikings took the game’s first possession 61 yards for a touchdown and followed with a 19-play, 98-yard touchdown drive. McCarthy converted on third-and-long four times on that 19-play drive, which included a deep pass to Jordan Addison for 21 yards on third-and-8.
These are the types of plays McCarthy made throughout his college career on what O’Connell refers to as “weighty downs.” While his ability as a passer remains unpolished, the intangible winner’s mentality, willing a team to victory, has surfaced in McCarthy several times this season.
Sunday’s win came as the Vikings adopted a simplified version of the offense that puts less mental load on McCarthy. The young quarterback excelled from that standpoint, but whether it’s a winning formula Kevin O’Connell wants to embrace is still in question.
Will Kevin O’Connell Throw JJ McCarthy Back Into the Deep End?
Last week, running back Aaron Jones described the Week 14 game plan as “vanilla,” and there wasn’t much “meat left on it.”
The Vikings got a dominant win against a bad team by keeping the offense simple. However, O’Connell wants to air the ball out and create explosive plays downfield.
Whether McCarthy’s performance last week is material or a mirage isn’t the entire question.
It’s a matter of whether O’Connell will continue to adapt his offense around what McCarthy does well now or will throw him in the deep end again.
If O’Connell wants McCarthy to run the offense that elevated Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold and produced playoff appearances, it would be wise to pivot back to the more complex scheme for the final four games of the season.
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