It may sound hard to believe, but the 5-8 Minnesota Vikings are still mathematically alive in the playoff race.
The Vikings currently sit in the 11th seed in the NFC, and are the next team up to be eliminated. Unless a lot of things go right for the Vikings, they will likely be eliminated from the playoffs this week.
Vikings Have Clear Path to the Playoffs
GettyMINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – DECEMBER 07: Head coach Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings looks on prior to a game against the Washington Commanders at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 07, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)
Thanks to Vikings Territory’s Dustin Baker, via an X post, he provided the Minnesota’s clear path to a playoff berth in January.
In the post, Dustin Baker listed out the following for what needs to happen for Minnesota to have a shot at entering the tournament:
- Vikings Win Next 4
- Bears Lose Out
- Lions Lose 3 but Beat Bears
- Panthers Lose 2 Games
- Cowboys Lose to Vikings and 1 Extra
This is obviously not a likely sequence of events, unfortunately. This could all crumble before the purple and gold even take the field for Sunday Night Football this week.
If the Chicago Bears defeat the Browns that afternoon (very feasible). then the Vikings are out of it just like that.
Breaking Down Minnesota’s Playoff Chances
GettyQuarterback JJ McCarthy and wide receiver Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.
Sports Illustrated‘s Joe Nelson broke down these events week-by-week for Minnesota.
Here’s the help the Vikings need in Week 15, and how their chance to make the playoffs rises with each ingredient, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Predictor. All of these are coupled with Vikings wins.
- Browns beat Bears — 2% chance Vikings make the playoffs
- Rams beat Lions — 3% chance Vikings make the playoffs
Here’s the help they need in Week 16:
- Packers beat Bears — 6% chance Vikings make the playoffs
- Steelers beat Lions — 19% chance Vikings make the playoffs
Here’s the help they need in Week 17:
- Commanders beat Cowboys — 24% chance Vikings make the playoffs
- Seahawks beat Panthers — 25% chance Vikings make the playoffs
- 49ers beat Bears — 49% chance Vikings make the playoffs
Here’s the help they need in Week 18:
- Lions beat Bears — 81% chance Vikings make the playoffs
So you’re saying there’s a chance? Minnesota needs a lot of help, as detailed by Nelson. He put a bow on it all:
- Vikings win out to finish 9-8
- Bears lose out to finish 9-8
- Lions finish 9-8, with their only remaining win coming against the Bears
- Cowboys lose at least two more games, including to the Vikings
- South runner-up (Panthers or Bucs) finish 9-8 or worse
If the 7th seed is up for grabs between the Vikings, Lions, and Bears, the tiebreaker would be decided by the best record in head-to-head games. Minnesota would be 2-2, the Lions would be 1-3, and the Bears would be 2-2.
It’s quite the mountain to climb, but not shocking with how they’ve played this season. Obviously, the purple team might not even deserve to make the playoffs, but this is about dreamers dreaming.
Minnesota’s season logically has been over for a couple of weeks now. Regardless, it isn’t over until it’s actually over.
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