The Minnesota Vikings embark on an experiment of reclamation with Sam Darnold this season — and ESPN laid out the worst-case scenario that could ultimately be best for Minnesota long term.
ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder revealed a single simulation of the analytics engine’s 20,000 simulations that inform their Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2024 season. The Vikings are ranked 25th in the aggregate of those thousands of simulations.
But FPI simulation No. 515 has Minnesota finishing among the worst teams in the league with only four wins on the season and landing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
“There was hope, back in the halcyon days of September, that quarterback Sam Darnold would finally figure it out,” Walder wrote in a September 3 article. “Darnold did not, in fact, figure it out. The Minnesota Vikings’ offense crumbled while the rest of the league came up with adjustments to defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ relentless blitzes.
“The result? A paltry four-win season. But with the losing came hope in the form of the No. 1 overall pick,” Walder wrote, adding that J.J. McCarthy looking like the quarterback of the future offers the Vikings a chance to trade back and bolster the rest of the roster.
Spotlighting this specific simulation is a low blow to the Vikings who have seen encouraging signs on both sides of the ball coming out of training camp. They’re most likely to land the No. 8 pick, according to ESPN’s FPI.
But it also offers a potential reality — given they have the fifth-most difficult schedule this season — that would be the best springboard for the 2025 season.
“The present is bleak in Minnesota, but the future is bright,” Walder said.
Vikings’ 2025 Offseason Will Be the Final Tune-Up for Playoff-Ready Roster
GettyVikings coach Kevin O’Connell
The Vikings are short on draft capital with only three picks — their first-round pick and a pair of fifth-rounders — in 2025 but are poised for a meaningful retooling of the roster that should catapult them to playoff status.
This offseason was just a taste of what they could do despite over $65 million in dead cap sunk into parting ways with Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter.
The Vikings fortified the defense by signing outside linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and inside linebacker Blake Cashman — all top-100 free agents in Pro Football Focus’ 2024 rankings. First-round pick Dallas Turner is also the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
They also locked down Justin Jefferson and left tackle Christian Darrisaw long-term this offseason and still have the fifth-most cap space to spend in 2025 free agency.
If the Vikings land a top-five draft pick as a result of a poor season, the pressure will be on Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell, who enter the final year of their contracts in 2025.
However, unlike the final days of Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman, the new Vikings regime has the resources to complete their rebuild of the roster that’s taken place the past two seasons.
Vikings Can Land No. 1 Prospect in Draft, Still Trade Back
GettyMichigan Wolverines defensive tackle Mason Graham
If the Vikings bottom out and land a top-five pick in next year’s draft, they’ll be in position to land future first-round picks and still select the No. 1 prospect at a different position group.
For example, the Vikings have been mocked Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham in several early mock drafts. Graham is the No. 1 overall prospect on Pro Football Focus’ 2025 big board.
However, quarterback is king in the NFL, meaning the Vikings could trade back and still land Graham later in the top 10.
The Vikings could also prioritize a blue-chip cornerback prospect with the additional draft capital gained in a trade-back.
Sprinkle in a few key veteran signings on both the offensive and defensive fronts and suddenly the Vikings look like a complete team ready to compete for a playoff spot.
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