The Minnesota Vikings surrendered second and third-round picks to their NFC North rival, the Detroit Lions, for tight end T.J. Hockenson and a pair of fourth-round selections. That was in 2022, and three years later, the Vikings have not gotten a good return on their investment.
That investment also included a four-year, $66 million extension with $40.2 million guaranteed.
Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon noted the disparity in the Vikings’ investment in Hockenson and his performance on the field, and listed the two-time Pro Bowler on the “All-Overpaid Team.”
Perhaps the most troubling part of Gagnon’s assessment for the Vikings is that, “At 28, T.J. Hockenson may be trending toward ‘bust’ status,” a title the tight end’s production largely belies, save for one key aspect: durability.
Pro Bowl TE T.J. Hockenson on ‘All-Overpaid Team’ Thanks to Vikings Contract
GettyMinnesota Vikinsg general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah speaks to the media during the NFL Scouting Combine.
Perhaps the most troubling part of Gagnon’s assessment for the Vikings is that, “At 28, T.J. Hockenson may be trending toward ‘bust’ status,” despite being the fourth-highest paid TE.
Gagnon noted that Hockenson, the No. 8 overall pick of the 2019 draft, “flirted with success” with the Lions and “flashed at times with the Vikings in 2023. But he also noted that a “major knee injury” suffered late in that 2023 campaign “sunk much of his 2024 season.”
Add in the Vikings’ future financial commitments, and the writing could be on the wall.
“He returned to play 10 games but averaged just 45.5 yards per outing and didn’t score a single touchdown,” Gagnon wrote on September 1. “In fact, Hockenson has scored just 23 times in his six-year NFL run. He’s gone over 750 yards just twice and has never hit the 1,000-yard plateau, and injuries have again been a factor this offseason for a guy who just hasn’t been consistently durable or a regular playmaker in his career.
“Meanwhile, the Vikings owe him $16.6 million in 2025, $21.4 million in 2026 and $23.4 million in 2027.”
No player, or their team, wants to be labeled as a “bust,” and Hockenson may be far from it.
Hockenson recorded back-to-back seasons with over 900 receiving yards (posting the third most in 2022 and 2023 combined, per Stathead) and five-plus touchdowns. However, he has logged a full slate of regular-season games twice; first in 2020 and then again in 2022.
Still, the Vikings can cut Hockenson in 2026 (post-June 1), saving $16 million with $5.3 million in dead money and another $5.3 million in 2027 ($18 million in savings), per Over The Cap.
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is also facing an upcoming cap crunch.
T.J. Hockenson Could Be Key For Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy
GettyJ.J. McCarthy #9 of the Minnesota Vikings looks on before facing the Houston Texans.
Hockenson has a prime opportunity to prove his worth this season as the Vikings break in a first-year starting quarterback in 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy. Potentially speeding up that process, Hockenson and McCarthy worked out together this offseason.
He also offers glowing praise of McCarthy, and that was before they got into training camp and the preseason.
In the wake of the preseason, Hockenson offered a noteworthy comparison for McCarthy.
“J.J. is a lot like Staff [Matthew Stafford] and a little like Kirk [Cousins],” Hockenson said, per the Star Tribune’s Andrew Krammer, in comments published on August 31. “Just depends on the routes and what we’re doing. ‘I want you here at this time, but on the same hand, I want you to get open. I’m going to trust you.’”
Hockenson played with Stafford, now of the Los Angeles Rams, on the Lions from 2019 through the 2020 season and with Cousins on the Vikings from midway through the 2022 season until the QB departed for the Atlanta Falcons in free agency in 2024.
McCarthy settling in some middle ground between those two passers, as Hockenson suggests, could be a boon for the Vikings.
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