The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most exciting teams to watch when it comes to one-score games in recent years under head coach Kevin O’Connell.
It’s been a roller coaster for the fans, and ESPN’s Bill Barnwell anticipates a downturn for 2025. Starting a new quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, though he was the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft and a 2023 national champion, also played a role in Barnwell predicting the Vikings to miss the playoffs.
“Vikings fans are sick of hearing about their record in one-score games, but when you go from 9-0 to 4-8 then to 8-1 across such games in Kevin O’Connell’s first three seasons in charge, it’s going to be a significant part of the conversation,” Barnwell wrote. “We know that’s a meaningful predictor of what happens next, so it’s tough to imagine Minnesota playing at the same level and getting the same results.”
Similarly with the defense, Barnwell doesn’t believe the Vikings can keep up the takeaway pace from 2024. In addition, McCarthy has a tall order to match or exceed what Sam Darnold did in 2024 and what Kirk Cousins did before that.
“My instinct is that he’s something close, but instead, a defensive decline and a less fortunate year in one-score contests push Minnesota back toward the middle of the NFC pack,” Barnwell wrote.
Minnesota will be in a gauntlet for the NFC North this season without question. The Detroit Lions are healthy and primed for another run, the Green Bay Packers added star linebacker Micah Parsons, and the Chicago Bears are expecting results with new head coach Ben Johnson. Going 14-3 with a shot to win the division again for the Vikings will be much harder this year than last year.
Vikings Defensive Questions a Big Factor
GettyVikings safety Camryn Bynum
Minnesota piled on the takeaways with 24 interceptions and 34 fumble recoveries in 2024. That’s more like a season of Madden versus a regular occurrence for any NFL team in real life.
“A thrilling defense led the league in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. That’s difficult to sustain, especially with Minnesota turning over a chunk of its secondary,” Barnwell wrote.
“This was the oldest team in football on a snap-weighted age basis, and after adding several new starters in free agency and making only three top-100 picks over the past two years, it’s tough to count on O’Connell’s team getting dramatically younger this season,” Barnwell added.
Minnesota made improvements in the trenches by adding Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to the defensive line this offseason. The Vikings still have a star in Jonathan Greenard, too.
On the back end, the Vikings will need new players such as Isaiah Rodgers, Tavierre Thomas, and Bubba Bolden to step up.
J.J. McCarthy Has Big Help in 2025
While McCarthy embarks on leading a talented offense, the Vikings made an effort to improve protection around him. That was a problem for Darnold last season as he endured 48 sacks in 17 games.
“The Vikings invested heavily along the line of scrimmage this offseason, and they probably won’t need to lean on their quarterback as much as they did on early downs with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins,” Barnwell wrote. “But we just don’t know whether McCarthy will be an upgrade on the passers who preceded him.”
McCarthy hasn’t played a regular-season snap yet because he missed the 2024 season due to meniscus surgery.
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