Warriors’ Odds for Giannis Rise Sharply After Rivals Back Out

The Golden State Warriors, desperate for a midseason course correction as Stephen Curry enters one of the final championship windows of his career, may have just received a lifeline.

A new round of reporting suggests the upcoming Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes could be far less crowded than previously believed — giving Golden State a clearer, though still difficult, path to a franchise-altering blockbuster.

Key Rivals Expected to Sit Out Giannis Trade Race

According to longtime NBA insider Marc Stein, three franchises armed with the league’s most intimidating collections of draft capital — the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder — are not expected to pursue Antetokounmpo if he ultimately asks out of Milwaukee.

“There is a growing belief among trade-trackers that San Antonio and Houston, like Oklahoma City, do not plan to join the chase for Antetokounmpo,” Stein wrote. “All three of those teams, as you can imagine, like what they have going.”

Stein added that several front offices anticipate the Bucks will begin fielding offers in January, ahead of the Feb. 5 trade deadline, but only if Antetokounmpo explicitly instructs the organization to do so. Until that moment, Milwaukee remains firm in its stance.

“It won’t happen until Giannis himself clearly directs the Bucks to do so,” Stein wrote.

This development fundamentally reshapes the landscape. For years, Golden State was viewed as a long shot in any superstar chase given the overwhelming firepower other teams could unleash. But if Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City sit out, the Warriors’ odds improve considerably.

Warriors Hold Trade Assets — But Still Trail the Elite War Chests

Golden State does not lack tools to make an aggressive run. The franchise can part with as many as four first-round picks and up to seven pick swaps, a sizable stash for a team that has spent a decade picking near the bottom of the draft.

They also possess young talent rival teams admire, including Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, both viewed internally and externally as potential long-term starters.

But even with that ammunition, Golden State cannot match the overwhelming haul the Rockets, Spurs or Thunder could assemble if they changed their minds. That disparity left the Warriors previously hesitant to consolidate their remaining assets.

Now, with the strongest rivals potentially unwilling to enter the race, the Warriors’ calculus appears different.

Warriors More Open to Packaging Kuminga and Podziemski for Antetokounmpo

NBA insider Jake Fischer reported that Golden State has long avoided pairing Kuminga and Podziemski in trade discussions — even declining to consider it during 2024 talks with Utah over Lauri Markkanen — to preserve the possibility of using both players in a superstar pursuit.

“Sources say Golden State has never been close to putting both Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski in the same trade conversation… just in case the chance emerged to package them both for Antetokounmpo or some other major, major fish,” Fischer wrote on The Stein Line.

Fischer added that while the Warriors have historically resisted the idea of moving Draymond Green, Antetokounmpo’s availability “would change that equation” for the front office.

Warriors Still Reluctant to Break Up the Curry–Green–Kerr Core

GettyGolden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, from left, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green pose for photos during an Olympic Gold Medal recognition ceremony.

Despite outside speculation, the franchise remains deeply committed to keeping its championship core intact.

According to Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints, the Warriors continue to view Curry, Green and head coach Steve Kerr as an inseparable trio destined to finish their careers together in Golden State. The organization held this stance even when pursuing Kevin Durant last season.

“Trading Green is not something the Warriors plan on doing,” Siegel reported. “The only way this mindset would change is if all three of Green, Curry and Kerr signed off on such a move.”

Siegel added an unexpected twist: if Golden State were to make an offer for Antetokounmpo, the outgoing star would more likely be Jimmy Butler, not Green.

“Draymond is the heart and soul of this Warriors organization,” Siegel wrote. “Butler would be the one needing to be moved in any scenario for Antetokounmpo.”

The Warriors are still a long way from the front of the line in any potential Giannis sweepstakes. But with three powerhouse rivals reportedly bowing out, Golden State has more daylight than it has seen in years — and with Curry’s clock ticking, that may be all the opportunity they need.

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