What Scotland and Wales need to do to qualify for the World Cup

Craig Bellamy and Steve Clarke have huge games ahead of them (Pictures: Getty)

It is crunch time in World Cup qualification with Scotland and Wales facing huge games in the coming days.

The group stage of qualification comes to an end next week, with nations hoping to qualify directly or at least make the play-offs in March.

Scotland still have the chance to avoid those nerve-shredding play-offs, as do Wales but their chances of topping their group are so distant they can be discounted.

There are plenty of connotations in the games to come, but both Steve Clarke and Craig Bellamy’s teams know what they have to do in massive games on both Saturday and Tuesday.

What Scotland need to do to qualify for the World Cup

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Steve Clarke’s side are guaranteed a top two finish in Group C, but can still avoid the play-offs and qualify directly.

Scotland play Greece in Piraeus on Saturday night while Denmark host Belarus in Copenhagen.

Scotland v Belarus - FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifier
Scott McTominay and Kieran Tierney hope to be at next summer’s World Cup (Picture: Getty Images)

The Scots then host the Danes in Glasgow on Tuesday.

Both Scotland and Denmark are currently on 10 points but the Danes sit top of the group with a far better goal difference of +11 compared to the Scots’ +5.

Belarus have not picked up a point yet so Denmark will likely beat them, meaning Scotland need at least a point in Greece to keep their hopes alive in Glasgow.

It is very unlikely Scotland can overhaul their goal difference deficit so their best shot is to stay within touching distance of Denmark on Saturday and then beat them at home to leapfrog them into top spot.

If not, it will be the play-offs for Clarke and his men.

Wales v Belgium - UEFA World Cup Qualifier
Joe Rodon scored in defeat to Belgium (Picture: Getty Images)

What Wales need to do to qualify

Group J sees Belgium top on 14 points, North Macedonia second on 13 and Wales third on 10, although North Macedonia have just one game left while the other two contenders have two.

Wales go to Liechtenstein on Saturday and then host North Macedonia on Tuesday.

Belgium have Kazakhstan away followed by Liechtenstein at home, so it can be assumed they will win at least one of those games and finish top of the group.

That leaves a scrap for the play-offs and Wales have it in their own hands.

They will need at least a point in Liechtenstein on Saturday as defeat would leave them only three points adrift of North Macedonia but a long way behind on goal difference.

It will then come down to beating North Macedonia in Cardiff, which will secure a play-off spot. A draw could be enough if they beat Liechtenstein by six goals or more, but that is a big ask.

Avoid defeat in Liechtenstein then beat North Macedonia. That is the route to the play-offs.

Wales v Montenegro - UEFA Nations League 2024/25 League B Group B4
Bellamy has been a popular Wales manager so far (Picture: Getty Images)

Can Wales qualify through the Nations League?

Things get complex here. There are four places in the play-offs for teams that won their Nations League group, if they haven’t qualified through the qualifiers.

Wales are set to get one of those spots even if they don’t finish in the top two of their qualification group, but that is not ideal.

Go into the play-offs through the Nations League route and you will be a bottom seed, facing a far sterner test to reach the World Cup.

What happens in the play-offs?

The play-offs are held in March and have four spots available at the World Cup.

16 teams are involved in one-legged semi-finals, followed by four one-legged finals.

The top seeded teams play their semi-final at home. The finals are randomly selected as home or away.

The four Nations League qualifiers will be given an away semi-final, along with the four lowest-ranked qualifiers.

The standard of teams in the play-offs could range from Italy to Moldova.

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