The New York Yankees captain, Aaron Judge has made a habit of turning MVP races into personal showcases, and Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly sees no reason why 2025 will be any different. Even with a brief injury scare earlier this summer, Judge remains the overwhelming favorite to win the American League’s top individual honor for the third time in four years.
Judge missed 10 days with a right elbow flexor strain, a stretch that might have derailed another player’s MVP case. Instead, he has returned to posting numbers that defy even his own high standards. Through 107 games, Judge leads all of Major League Baseball in batting average (.339), on-base percentage (.447), slugging percentage (.697), OPS (1.144), OPS+ (212), total bases (271), and WAR (6.6). He’s also the AL leader in runs scored (92) and total bases, and remains within striking distance of the home run lead with 37 long balls.
The numbers are staggering. Judge is reaching base nearly 45% of the time, and when he makes contact, it’s with as much authority as anyone in the sport. His hard-hit rate sits near 55.6%, and he’s barreling up pitches at a clip (21.5%) that makes pitchers regret challenging him. It’s the kind of sustained dominance that has defined this era of Yankees baseball—and made Judge the franchise’s unquestioned face.
Raleigh’s Push Isn’t Enough
Cal Raleigh, Seattle’s power-hitting catcher, has done everything possible to keep the MVP race interesting. He leads the majors with 42 home runs and has driven in an AL-best 90 runs, putting up historic numbers for a backstop. Kelly calls it “even more impressive” that Raleigh is producing at this level while getting the bulk of his starts behind the plate, enduring the physical toll of catching on top of his offensive load.
Still, the gap between the two stars isn’t as close as it might look. Raleigh’s .248 batting average is 91 points lower than Judge’s .339, and Judge is within five home runs despite missing time due to injury. As Kelly noted, if Raleigh played in the National League, he would likely be the runaway favorite for MVP. In the American League, though, he may be destined for second place.
The difference comes down to complete dominance. Judge isn’t just hitting for power—he’s producing at an elite level in every offensive category while carrying the Yankees’ lineup through a turbulent season. The consistency has been unmatched. His advanced stats—26.2% strikeout rate balanced by a 16% walk rate, a .460 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and a 54.8% fly ball rate—paint the picture of a hitter in total control of his craft.
A Historic Company
If Judge does secure the award, he’ll join Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout as the only active players with three AL MVP trophies. Both of those names are already locks for the Hall of Fame, and Judge’s resume is starting to demand the same treatment. Winning three MVPs in four years would cement this stretch as one of the greatest peaks in baseball history, a run defined by sustained excellence and game-changing performances.
At 33 years old, Judge is still the focal point of every opposing scouting report, and yet he continues to put up numbers that belong in the record books. He’s the kind of player who can make a 10-day absence feel like a minor blip rather than a turning point in a season. And for the Yankees—who have had their share of ups and downs—having the game’s most dangerous hitter in peak form might be the biggest reason to believe October could still end in a parade.
The MVP race isn’t over, but Judge’s lead is as commanding as his swing.
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