Back on Dec. 3, a shockwave swept through baseball when it was reported that Kyle Tucker, the lefty-swinging four-time All-Star who has become the consensus top free agent on the market, met in person with Toronto Blue Jays team officials at their player training facility in Dunedin, Florida.
Though Tucker grew up and still resides in Tampa, just 25 miles from Dunedin, the visit was seen as giving Toronto a clear advantage in the race to sign Tucker, and perhaps even as a statement of the 28-year-old outfielder’s preference for his next baseball destination.
At the time, MLB.com Blue Jays correspondent Keegan Matheson speculated that Tucker would “command a contract that blows past $300 million.” But a new prediction by a leading MLB analyst sees Tucker doing much better than that.
Not only will the former Chicago Cub “blow past” the $300 million mark, he will leave that sum in the dust â to the tune of $130 million extra, according to the prediction.
Greater Average Annual Value Than Guerrero
“Imagine a decade of Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting back-to-back in the Blue Jays lineup? That is the type of left-right combination that teams dream of having,” wrote Just Baseball editor-in-chief Ryan Finkelstein, in an analysis published on Tuesday.
“Despite a few seasons where he has been hampered by injuries, Tucker is not going to have any problem signing a long-term deal,” the Just Baseball editor continued. “Especially since he hits the market ahead of his age-29 season.”
Finkelstein goes on to predict that Tucker â coming off his lone season with the Cubs in which he played on a one-year, $16.5 million contract â will sign with the defending American League champion Blue Jays for a staggering 10-year deal worth $430 million.
If the Just Baseball editorâs prediction proves correct, it would make Tucker the highest-paid player on the Blue Jays, on an average annual basis â setting him ahead of homegrown first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who inked a head-spinning 14-year contract extension worth $500 million in April.
Tucker Would be Second-Highest Paid in MLB
The average annual value of Tucker’s predicted contract would come in at $43 million. Guerrero’s contract pays him somewhat less on a per-year basis â $40.2 million, according to the sports business site Spotrac.
At $43 million, Tucker would exceed Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler, who makes $42 million annually on his three-year, $126 million contract.
On an annual basis, according to Spotrac rankings, only Juan Soto makes more than Tucker would haul in, based on the Just Baseball prediction. The New York Mets outfielder is set to collect $61.9 million on the all-time record 15-year, $765 million contract that he signed in December 2024.
The Los Angeles Dodgersâ Shohei Ohtani has a contract for $700 million over 10 years, but according to Spotrac, due to various deferments and other provisions, he will be paid $28.2 million in 2026, rather than $70 million.
Is Tucker Worth the Money?
But is Tucker really such a great player that he merits the second-highest salary of any player in the game? In his eight-year career, his OPS of .865 is approximately the same as Guerrero’s (.865), though considerably lower than Soto’s .948 or Ohtani’s .957.
The career leader in OPS among active players is the New York Yankees‘ Aaron Judge with a remarkable 1.028 figure. Judge will be paid $40 million in 2026, on his nine-year $360 million contract â still less than Tucker if the Just Baseball prediction proves correct.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Blue Jays Predicted to Sign Kyle Tucker to $430 Million, 10-Year Contract appeared first on Heavy Sports.