This week, in a move that was expected, word came out that Japanese infielder and slugger Munetaka Murakami would be posted by his team, the Yakult Swallows, making available for bidding by MLB teams. And as a team that needs a first baseman (and/or a third baseman), as well as a middle-of-the-lineup slugger, the Red Sox were almost universally listed as a team with interest.
Given the Dodgers‘ current dominance of the Japanese player market and the Red Sox’s most recent and mostly unsuccessful flutter into that market (five years and $90 million for Masataka Yoshida), it’s fair to question just how serious the Red Sox are as suitors. But from The Athletic to MLB.com to the Globe, they’ve been connected.
Murakami is mostly a third baseman, though could move to first base in MLB. With Alex Bregman in free agency and Triston Casas in injury limbo, Murakami makes some sense.
Munetaka Murakami ‘Biggest Risk/Reward Play’
Or does he? Well, if the Red Sox place some value on speed on the basepaths, defensive acumen and avoiding hitters too negative on the swing-and-miss scale, Murakami is an odd fit. The fact that Tim Britton of The Athletic projects him as warranting an eight-year, $158 million contract makes things sticky, too.
Here’s what The Athletic noted about him: “Murakami might be the biggest risk/reward play available this winter. The 26-year-old’s power from the left side of the plate is prodigious. He’s hit as many as 56 home runs in an NPB season, and his OPS has been about 35 percent better than the league mark over the last three years — production in line with that of Seiya Suzuki before he signed with MLB.
“However, Murakami missed a chunk of last season with elbow and oblique injuries, and there’s concern about the recent decline in his bat-to-ball skills.”
Red Sox Would Be Wary of Strikeouts
If Murakami produces like Suzuki at the MLB level, there would be no objections from the Red Sox–Suzuki has hit .269 with 87 homers and a .816 OPS in four years. The issue there, though, is that Suzuki is on a five-year, $85 million contract.
And Murakami struggles to make contact. Via MLBTR: “Murakami slashed .270/.394/.557 with the Swallows, though there is plenty of swing-and-miss to his game. He struck out at least 28% of the time in each of his last three seasons. Strikeout numbers are typically lower in NPB, so that mark should be expected to rise when Murakami faces MLB pitching.
“It’s unclear where Murakami will fit on the defensive side. He’s spent most of his time at third base over the past five seasons, but he also has ample experience at first base. Murakami made a single start in right field this past year. Scouts have labeled him as an average fielder who will probably fit best at first base.
Munetaka Murakami Doesn’t Walk Much
At MLB.com, which linked Murakami to the Red Sox, there’s another worry that would tamp down some enthusiasm for him: “Also of concern is Murakami’s walk rate, which has dipped from a career-high 19.3 percent in his monster 2022 season to 14.3 percent this past year. Murakami owns a .394 career on-base percentage, though it has decreased into the .370s in each of the past three seasons after hovering between .408 and .458 from 2020 through 2022.”
The site quoted an AL executive speaking about Murakami, expressing concerns that certainly would apply to the Red Sox: “The strikeout and walk numbers may scare some teams away. He has big power, but there appear to be a lot of holes in that swing.”
Red Sox Verdict: Too Much Risk for Questionable Reward?
Still, there is the positive. Murakami can hit, and does so with force. He has 246 home runs with the Swallows, over eight seasons, and hit 56 homers in 2022, which broke a record for NPB homers by a Japanese-born player. (The former record holder was the Japanese Babe Ruth, Sadaharu Oh.)
There have been injuries in the past two years, but nothing major/structural. He has a .270 career average with 246 homers, 647 RBIs and 977 strikeouts in 892 games over eight Central League seasons, all with the Swallows.
The reward is obvious on Murakami. But if $158 million is the number, so are the risks.
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