California is close to cornering the 2028 Democratic presidential market.
Indeed, former Vice President Kamala Harris has the polling advantage, Governor Gavin Newsom leads the betting markets, and Rep. Ro Khanna is making a strong bid to be the progressive “Bernie candidate.”
That being said, each of the Golden State’s potential presidential nominees is facing a very different path to the top of the party’s ticket.
Harris, who has long led national polls almost entirely due to name recognition over anything else, has largely refrained from advertising her ambitions – the polar opposite of Newsom, whose aspirations are the worst kept secret in politics.
According to two recent polls, however, it appears to be working for the former VP.
The first, from Quantus Insights, shows Harris’ share of the vote almost double to Newsom’s (35% to 18%). And while that may be a slight outlier due to only testing five candidates – other polls have tested between 8-11, there is evidence that her lead is real.
To that point, the second poll, from Echelon Insights, reveals that Harris (21%) leads the Governor by 7-points, with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg right behind Newsom at 13%.
Taken together, both polls align with the RealClearPolitics aggregator for all polls from the end of May through now, showing Harris (28%) ahead of Newsom (17%), Buttigieg (11%), and the rest of the field in single digits.
Critically, the Democratic primary is extremely far off, so while polls suggest that Harris is the dominant candidate, the race is genuinely wide open.
Moreover, even some of Harris’ former allies are convinced that Democrats need to go in a different direction.
As a recent ABC News article reported, former donors and supporters still have “sour feelings” from 2024 and think someone else would be better able to articulate Democrats’ case.
Enter Gavin Newsom, who former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown – “one of California’s top powerbrokers” – described as the kind of winner “you really want to embrace.”
The California governor is the betting markets’ favorite. At time of writing, he’s leading Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (20% to 14%) and Harris (20% to 7%) on Polymarket.
Kalshi, another political betting site, shows virtually identical numbers, with Newsom (20%) ahead of Ocasio-Cortez (16%), Sen. Jon Ossoff (14%), and Harris (8%).
And yet, Newsom’s polling numbers have remained stubbornly between 14% and 18% in 11 of the most recent 14 polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.
Whether due to his repeated flip-flopping leaving voters unsure where he stands, scandals involving his ex-Chief of Staff, a DOJ investigation into him and his wife, or general concerns with California under his leadership, the polls throw some doubt into his strength.
To be clear, he still must be considered a front-runner.
By dint of being more active than Harris – and others – have been, Newsom has been able to ingratiate himself with donors.
According to the above ABC article, one bundler who had supported Harris for over 15 years described hesitation among donors to back Harris and said that Newsom would have a financial edge.
Further, the betting markets showing Newsom leading incorporate a wider electorate than Democratic primary polls. The latter also tend to be dominated by the far left, possibly reflecting a narrower, more partisan electorate – and one that has increasingly clashed with Newsom in recent months.
As for the far left, Rep. Ro Khanna is leaving no doubt that he is looking to either assume the mantle of the Bernie Sanders wing – should AOC run for Senate instead – or outflank her and take it.
The Silicon Valley congressman has built a genuine national profile, first with his push to force the release of the Epstein files and then with his enthusiastic support for progressive candidates throughout the country.
Khanna has been among the most vocal and visible supporters of fellow progressive candidates, particularly in Michigan where he’s campaigned for far-left Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
Similarly, Khanna was an extremely public backer of Graham Platner prior to his withdrawal from the Senate race in Maine, including standing by Platner through multiple scandals up until it became impossible to do so.
At the same time, fully aware of his base’s view on the issue, Khanna pulled off a masterclass in political maneuvering during his recent trip to Israel.
By not coordinating his trip with the government and traveling to area that, until very recently, had been a closed military zone, Khanna knew he would come into conflict with the Israeli military, giving the California lawmaker a campaign talking point no Democrat can match.
Regardless of one’s opinions on Khanna’s trip or the events that took place in Israel, it’s clear that he sought to use the incident for political purposes; specifically, boosting his profile among progressives ahead of 2028.
To that end, despite Khanna’s support for progressive candidates and his Israel incident, he is largely off the radar. He has just a 2% chance on Polymarket and often fails to even be included in polls.
However, that very well may change as the primary nears. It’s worth noting that former President Obama was typically not included in polls in the years before the 2008 primary, or if he was, trailed heavyweights like Hillary Clinton by extremely wide margins.
Ultimately, which – if any – of these three potential presidential nominees emerges from this California cluster remains to be seen.
Harris and Newsom are competing for the same establishment donors – and voters – while Khanna’s candidacy, much discussed in the media, has yet to make any noticeable impact in the polls.
Nevertheless, with the 2028 primary cycle beginning to take shape, the Golden State has three candidates, all of whom have the potential to play central roles in the path to the White House.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.