GTA 6’s biggest rival is GTA 5 says analyst: ‘It’s wild times’

An analyst has discussed the modern gaming landscape and how it could affect GTA 6, as the same handful of titles continue to dominate.

GTA 6 is guaranteed to be the biggest game of the year when it launches on May 26, 2026, but the big question is how successful will it be in the long term?

If it follows the same path as GTA 5, the sequel could become the most financially successful entertainment product of all time. Despite coming out 12 years ago, GTA 5 (and specifically GTA Online) is still one of the most played games in terms of weekly active users, alongside the likes of Fortnite, Roblox, Minecraft, and Call Of Duty.

The ongoing nature of GTA 5 is reflective of the current gaming landscape, where a small handful of juggernauts are swallowing up all the attention, to the point where GTA 6’s biggest competitor is its own predecessor.

Speaking in an interview with GamesIndustry.biz, industry analyst Mat Piscatella highlighted the problems developer Rockstar Games faces.

‘You look at something like Fortnite,’ Piscatella said. ‘It’s been, what, seven, eight years now that that thing’s been the biggest thing in the world. Or Minecraft. And GTA 5 launched in 2013. It’s still one of the top 20 best-selling games every single month.

‘The biggest competitor to GTA 6 will be GTA 5. It’s wild times to be trying to make new video games.’

While the outlook might be bleak for developers trying to make new games outside of existing IP, former Sony Interactive Entertainment president Shawn Layden highlighted the recent success of double-A titles, like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, as a reason to be optimistic.

‘I think the future is going to be a wider variety of games,’ Layden told the outlet. ‘I’m not worried about the future.’

However, Piscatella makes a more alarming prediction, suggesting that the free-to-play model might become the ‘baseline’ for the industry in the decades to come, based on the habits of younger generations.

‘The data is clear that the console buyer is becoming older and more affluent, and the younger generations are choosing more often to default to mobile or PC because of the ease of entry and because they already have the devices,’ he added.

‘So, I think eventually over time, we’re going to get to the point where we more fully transition towards that free-to-play model as a baseline over the next, say, 20 years, 30 years.’

There’s a lot we don’t know about GTA 6, like how much it will cost, but the key to its long term success will be GTA Online (or GTA Online 2 – Rockstar has said nothing about its online plans for the game).

If the online suite in the sequel isn’t as compelling as GTA 5’s, Rockstar might have a battle on its hands convincing people to turn away from the title they’ve spent a decade investing time into. Even if it is functionally better it will inevitably have less content at launch, which could lead to many returning to GTA 5 after an initial honeymoon period.

Based on the trailers though, all signs point to GTA 6 being a significant technical leap over its predecessor, which might be enough to supplant GTA 5 and keep itself in the conversation for the next decade to come.

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