The Cubs’ playoff fate is suddenly a lot more uncertain.
That’s what happens when you start the regular season’s home stretch winning just two of eight series.
This week’s three-game sweep at the hands of the rival Brewers all but put the NL Central race on ice, putting the Cubs back by double digits in the standings with only 15 games remaining on their schedule.
Whether there will be any games past that, somewhat shockingly, remains to be seen.
But that’s how things are going for the Cubs, who have slipped from their perch controlling the NL wild-card race to second place behind the Phillies, with only a meager lead on the third-place Padres and next-in-line Diamondbacks, the latter another team that dealt them a recent series loss at the worst possible time.
Rather than spending the regular season’s final weeks tuning up for a planned run deep into October, the Cubs will need to fight to secure their ticket to the postseason, with three games apiece against the Pirates, Braves, Reds, Marlins and Red Sox. Two of those squads — the Braves and Red Sox — also have playoff seeding to fight for.
“We don’t have time to sulk,” righty pitcher Kevin Gausman said after Wednesday’s game, the team’s fourth straight loss. “We’ve just got to keep staying confident in this group.”
How did this happen?
The Cubs, after all, woke up Thursday still in statistical possession of baseball’s best offense, leading the sport with 774 runs scored, and far and away baseball’s best defense, leading the way with 107 defensive runs saved.
But a roller-coaster season has taken another dip, not exactly the same as when the bats went cold in late May and early June, though potentially just as costly.
On Aug. 12, the Cubs owned a 6½-game lead on the second-place Padres in the wild-card standings, further ahead of the D-backs and Phillies, who were tied for third. Since, they’ve gone 10-16, tumbling into their current predicament.
During this latest downturn, the Cubs’ bullpen has been a flashpoint, headlined by closer Jacob Webb coughing up a trio of game-changing homers in recent weeks. But the starting rotation, too, has been plagued by inconsistency, with team president Jed Hoyer’s worst fears about a staff that could sink his team’s chances seemingly coming true.
That trade-deadline acquisitions Gausman and Clay Holmes have been among the offenders is troubling. Just a week ago, Hoyer described the two righties as “stabilizing forces,” and that’s what they were brought in to be. Then Holmes had perhaps the worst start of his career last weekend against the Marlins, while Gausman continued to swing back and forth between gems and clunkers, giving up three homers Wednesday in Milwaukee.
This week’s series in Wisconsin not just reinforced that the Cubs are a clear No. 2 in their rivalry with the best-in-baseball Brewers but saw them struggling to do even the things that made them contenders in the first place. They scored only four of their 12 runs in the series before the ninth inning and made a pair of rare defensive mistakes that led to runs in Wednesday’s loss.
“We’ve got to play good baseball,” manager Craig Counsell said. “We’re not playing good enough. There’s enough things we’re not doing in all areas.
“We’ve got to do a little bit more, collectively, to win games.”
That Brewers-shaped hurdle figures to be waiting for the Cubs at some point, should they advance in the postseason with a chance at revenge for last year’s ouster.
How would they clear it? A question without an answer after a rough three days and another season looking up at their rivals.
“The last two years, we’ve been chasing them,” left fielder Ian Happ said. “They have the best record in baseball now. They had the best record in baseball last year. They’ve done their job, and so you have to give them credit for that, all the way around as an organization.”
But right now, there are bigger fish to fry, chiefly ensuring they get into the postseason at all.
“Obviously, not the series we wanted to have here,” Happ said. “But we’ve put ourselves in a position where we control our own destiny, right?
“Our goal is to play playoff baseball, no matter how that shakes out, and give ourselves an opportunity. We have a little over two weeks to make that push and finish strong.”
The Cubs’ goals have been bigger than just reaching October, hungry for a World Series, a hunger fueled by that playoff exit a year ago.
But at this exact moment, the idea of the Cubs making it through the postseason gauntlet with all that troubles them, particularly on the pitching side, seems less realistic than it did not long ago.
Stellar play — and another climb on this season’s roller coaster — is not at all out of the realm of possibility, though, and the Cubs could find a discussion about them sputtering at the wrong time turning into one about them surging at the right time with a couple winning weeks.
The best offense? The best defense? The MVP favorite in Pete Crow-Armstrong? A hot-hitting free-agent splash in Alex Bregman? The big-money manager in Counsell? The fruits of an aggressive trade deadline?
Championship ingredients, without a doubt.
But will they get the chance to play for that championship?
Only if the next two weeks look a lot better than the last several.