The last time the Bears beat Aaron Rodgers — way back in 2018 in Week 15 at Soldier Field — they won the battle but lost the war of attrition.
Safety Eddie Jackson’s interception of Rodgers in the end zone was a clinching blow, but Jackson suffered an ankle injury on his 13-yard return and never played again that season. He was missed in the Bears’ playoff loss to the Eagles, who won 15-14 when Nick Foles threw a two-yard touchdown pass to Golden Tate, with backup safety Sherrick McManis defending just past the goal line.
Success in the NFL, especially in the second half of the season, is not just about winning, but surviving. When the Bears face the Steelers — and possibly Rodgers, who is questionable with a broken left wrist — on Sunday at Soldier Field, it will be the seventh of 13 consecutive weeks they will play since their Week 5 bye. And after a survivable first 10 games with manageable injuries, winning the war of attrition is getting more challenging.
The Bears will play Sunday without their entire starting linebacker corps — Tremaine Edmunds (groin), T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring) and Noah Sewell (elbow) were ruled out Friday. Rodgers, who relished facing the Bears at their best with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, will be trying to convince Mike Tomlin to play him no matter who is on the other side. But with the prospect of facing a Bears defense with special-teamers D’Marco Jackson and Amen Ogbongbemiga and rookie Ruben Hypollite at linebacker, he might be begging him.
It could turn out that a weakened Bears defense makes it more likely that Tomlin will take his chances with backup Mason Rudolph, who is 9-9-1 with an 82.1 passer rating (25 touchdowns, 19 interceptions) in 19 NFL starts.
Either way, the Bears’ fate at this point of the season is partially in the hands of the football gods. All-Pro cornerback Jaylon Johnson has played one game this season. Slot cornerback Kyler Gordon has played two. But the Bears have been healthy where they need it most — at quarterback and on the offensive line.
Caleb Williams will make his 28th consecutive start Sunday — already the third-longest starting streak for a Bears quarterback in franchise history, behind Bob Avellini (42 games) and Bill Wade (37). The offensive-line combination of Theo Benedet, Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright has started six consecutive games. It’s not a coincidence the Bears have averaged 176.2 rushing yards since that group was put together over the bye week.
But there’s the rub. Benedet is questionable after being limited all week with a quad injury he suffered against the Vikings last week (he missed one snap). If Benedet can’t play, rookie Ozzy Trapilo presumably starts in his place.
With the Ben Johnson Effect in full force this season, maybe that turns out to be the break Trapilo needs — and the second-round draft pick emerges as the left tackle the Bears were looking for when they drafted him. When you’re hot, you’re hot.
But in the NFL, good fortune is tenuous. With the rival Packers (tight end Tucker Kraft) and Lions (tight end Sam LaPorta) losing key players for the season, the Bears have a chance for a rare net gain down the stretch if Jaylon Johnson and Gordon return and Edmunds and Edwards recover quickly. As was the case against Rodgers in 2018, it’s not just about winning the battle.
When the Bears have the ball
Coming off a shaky offensive performance against a Vikings defense missing its best pass rusher, Caleb Williams and the Bears get a good litmus test against a balanced but vulnerable Steelers defense that has its moments — 28th in the NFL in yards allowed (368.1) but tied for 16th in points allowed (23.2). In Weeks 8-9, the Steelers were strafed by Jordan Love (360 yards, three touchdowns, 134.2 rating), then shut down red-hot Daniel Jones (three interceptions, 63.9 rating) and the high-flying Colts.
Williams, who was held to 193 passing yards against the Vikings, should have an opportunity to fire away against a Steelers defense that ranks 32nd in passing yards allowed (261.7). Then again, the Steelers held Joe Flacco to 199 passing yards last week — after Flacco torched the Bears for 470 yards in the Bengals’ previous game.
The key matchup is the kind of battle the Bears need if they have playoff hopes — right tackle Darnell Wright vs. Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt. Wright seems to get up for the big challenges. After containing NFL sack leader Brian Burns in Week 10, he was less effective against the Vikings without Jonathan Greenard. Watt isn’t the dominating rusher he has been (six sacks, 35 pressures), but he still has game-wrecking potential. And you can’t sleep on relentless edge rusher Nick Herbig, who has 6œ sacks and leads the NFL in pass-rush win rate (31%), per Next Gen Stats.
When the Steelers have the ball
Ultimate Bears villain Aaron Rodgers is questionable with a broken left wrist, but after losing to Ravens backup Tyler Huntley in Week 8, the Bears aren’t likely to relax if Mason Rudolph starts.
Rodgers, who is 25-4 against the Bears in games he has started and finished, will do everything he can to convince Mike Tomlin he can play — especially with the Bears missing their entire starting linebacker corps. Tremaine Edmunds (groin), T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring) and Noah Sewell (elbow) will not play. Backups D’Marco Jackson (zero), Ruben Hyppolite (zero) and Amen Ogbongbemiga (two) have a combined two NFL starts.
Still, Rodgers is past his prime at 41 — a credible 97.7 passer rating (19 touchdowns, seven interceptions) but a career-low 196.9 passing yards per game. Rudolph is 9-9-1 with an 82.1 passer rating (25 touchdowns, 19 interceptions) in 19 NFL starts.
The Bears have leaned on takeaways all season. They lead the NFL with 22, including 21 in their seven victories. With Rodgers starting, the Steelers have 10 turnovers, tied for the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
With Rodgers or Rudolph, the Steelers have a big-play threat in wide receiver DK Metcalf (37 receptions, 551 yards, five touchdowns). But their second-leading receiver is tight end Pat Freiermuth (27-239, three touchdowns). The Steelers are 29th in rushing, with Jaylen Warren (123 carries, 536 yards, two touchdowns) replacing Najee Harris.