Even with Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ recent progress, there’s no telling how he’ll handle what’s coming next.
The challenge is the first of its kind for him: Coming off two nail-biting NFC North losses, he’s on a short turnaround before going on the road Thursday against the Lions, the best team in the NFL.
Williams acknowledged the condensed schedule to recover physically and prepare mentally is uncomfortable, and he had a few ‘‘mess-ups’’ in the walkthrough Tuesday because he hadn’t had time to study every detail of offensive coordinator Thomas Brown’s game plan. Thursday games are common in the NFL — the Bears have another one late next month — but Williams never has done it.
The upside for him is that he looks more capable than ever of managing this moment. Rookie seasons are roller coasters, and Thursday well might be another plunge in his ride. But he showed sufficient evidence the last two weeks against the Packers and Vikings that he’s ready to be thrown into the deep end.
‘‘The time on task has helped,’’ said Williams, who has started all 11 games and played all but six of the Bears’ snaps. ‘‘You can’t ever beat that. That has provided a sense of clarity, a sense of belief and things like that.’’
Williams sputtered at the start of the season, surged against bad defenses, then plummeted again before rising with a solid game against the Packers (231 yards, 95.0 passer rating) and an excellent performance against the Vikings (340 yards, two touchdowns, 103.1 passer rating).
That uptick began with Brown replacing Shane Waldron as coordinator, and that hardly seems coincidental. Perhaps Williams would have gotten to this point by now just the same, but everyone at Halas Hall should be asking whether he would have arrived here sooner had the Bears hired Brown over Waldron in the first place.
Given how much Williams has raved about Brown’s coaching style — ‘‘He just allows you to play free,’’ he said this week — and overall operation, Williams, the offense and the Bears at large could have gained a lot more ground in the last six months.
Williams pushed back on that notion Tuesday, but he conceded that with Brown connecting better to players and using them more effectively as he runs a more efficient offense, ‘‘If we were able to do that a little sooner and get going a little sooner, it would’ve helped all of us.’’
Regardless, Williams has trended the right way the last two weeks and has done it against top-10 defenses.
The Lions, however, will be the best team he has faced. They’re second in the NFL at 16.6 points allowed per game and lead the league with a 72.7 opponent passer rating. They also are the top third-down defense, allowing conversions only 29.8% of the time. In addition to all that, their offense leads the NFL in points, making it all the more difficult for opponents to keep up.
The Vikings’ Sam Darnold is the only quarterback to post a passer rating of 91 or higher against the Lions, and that wasn’t enough to beat them. The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and the Texans’ C.J. Stroud each threw two interceptions and lost. The Packers’ Jordan Love played his worst game of the season when he faced them. The last guy to try was the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, who completed only 11 of 28 passes.
They’re a problem for any quarterback, let alone a rookie trying to establish a baseline.
‘‘When you come out of those valleys and you get those peaks, you want to find ways to stay on that and plateau,’’ Williams said.
Or ascend, even.
The Bears’ long-term future hinges on Williams continuing to climb, and the daunting schedule in the final six games will provide an ideal measurement of his development. The team can forget about chasing the playoffs at 4-7, but Williams still has a ton to gain and to prove.