This is no time for Caleb Williams to slip.
Confidence in the Bears’ second-year quarterback is at its peak, both within the organization and outside it. It’s imperative that he keeps it there in the regular-season finale Sunday against the Lions as the Bears look to secure the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC.
This already has been a good season. Whether it becomes great hinges on him maintaining his momentum after being on fire the last few weeks in wins over the Packers and Browns and a tight loss to the 49ers.
In what could be viewed as a turning point, Williams threw for 822 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions for a 103.1 passer rating in those games. He has had three-game surges along those lines before, but this time it was against solid opponents and in the middle of a playoff race.
Not surprisingly for an organization that has started 42 quarterbacks since the 1985 team won the Super Bowl, the Bears are the only NFL team never to have a 4,000-yard passer. Williams needs 270 yards to become the first — and just 109 to break Erik Kramer’s franchise record of 3,838 in 1995 (set in a 16-game season). Kramer also set the Bears record with 29 touchdown passes that year. To match him, Williams needs four, which he has done in a game twice in his career.
The Lions, who have been eliminated from playoff contention, are 18th in the NFL in total defense, 19th in pass defense and 19th in opponent passer rating. Led by Pro Bowl defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, they’re 15th in pressuring quarterbacks. So even if the Bears did prioritize Williams’ statistical milestones, they won’t come easily.
Coach Ben Johnson dismissed the pursuit of 4,000 yards as mere trivia. Although that’s not entirely correct, given that the Bears’ failure to hit the number before symbolizes their notorious futility at quarterback, he has a point that winning Sunday and staying on track are more important than a record.
“[Williams] continues to get better in terms of the ball placement on a number of throws — short, intermediate and deep — and I’d like to see that trend continue,” Johnson said. “He’s just so self-aware now of where he can improve, and it’s been really encouraging to see. I don’t think there’s any statistical goal we’re trying to hit other than we have to score more points than the opponent, and for him to continue to take what the defense has given us.”
Statistics may not be the goal, true, but they usually tell the story of whether goals are being achieved. Johnson likely would agree with that after reiterating the importance of the advanced Expected Points Added metric, setting a target for Williams to complete 70% of his passes and this week highlighting turnover margin and the Bears’ play on third down and in the red zone.
Williams is nowhere near the 70% mark, having completed an NFL-worst 57.9% of his passes, but otherwise he has improved across the board. His average passing yardage is up from 208.3 yards per game in 2024 to 233.1 this season. He followed up his 20 touchdown passes and six interceptions as a rookie with 25 and six in 2025. Even with the poor completion percentage, his yards per pass are up from 6.3 to 7.0, and his passer rating has climbed from 87.8 to 90.3 — 18th in the league. He went from being the most sacked quarterback in the NFL last season (68) to taking the seventh-fewest sacks (23). He’s eighth in the NFL in total passing yardage and seventh in touchdown passes and has the fewest interceptions by percentage of passes at 1.1%.
Some of that was made possible by upgrades around him, such as the Bears’ vastly better offensive line. But it also is a result of his growth. He has taken to Johnson’s coaching and made strides, particularly in his pocket presence.
Their partnership has come a long way since the summer, when Johnson regularly vented his frustration about the offense running slowly and clunkily. Williams has acclimated. Johnson has tightened his approach to the position without scrubbing the creativity and bravado that make Williams special.
But their connection is still in its infancy. They won’t hit a full year working together until later this month.
Only recently has Johnson “taken the training wheels off,” in his words, unlocking chapters of his playbook he previously wasn’t sure if Williams and the offense could handle. He and Williams talk as though they’re going to be together for the next decade, which certainly has been the Bears’ dream.
There’s nowhere better to build than in the playoffs, with the pressure of competing against the best with the season on the line. Williams’ ability to thrive in that setting will say a lot about his readiness to make a bigger jump next season.
He and the Bears would like to believe he’s been ramping up to that over the last month or so. With a strong game against the Lions, he can reinforce that notion. In a perfect world for the Bears, he’d also play so well that they can get him out of the game early and healthy, with an eye on what’s next.